Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10224.585242.232
20181.218183.658
30153.164152.796
40134.542128.415
50116.858110.085
60101.72492.998
7086.53079.169
8071.38465.462
9053.86249.867

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1366.812482.148
2319.972388.133
3297.746356.034
4280.002331.818
5266.460314.290
6252.912292.302
7242.319277.531
8235.447264.161
9229.127251.445
10224.585242.232
11218.343234.802
12213.505226.835
13208.607220.870
14203.917214.943
15200.400208.618
16196.408203.742
17192.564198.021
18189.355192.319
19185.123187.436
20181.218183.658
21177.741180.033
22174.689175.893
23171.358173.262
24168.451169.224
25165.618166.781
26163.012164.670
27160.773161.388
28158.468158.821
29155.964156.005
30153.164152.796
31151.324149.957
32149.429146.988
33147.605144.724
34145.671142.605
35143.468139.508
36141.366137.164
37139.500134.765
38137.755132.591
39136.289130.767
40134.542128.415
41132.764126.142
42130.505124.499
43128.922123.072
44127.253121.178
45125.295119.476
46123.534117.531
47121.620115.857
48120.049113.613
49118.343111.892
50116.858110.085
51115.250108.445
52113.600106.839
53112.024104.869
54110.560103.112
55109.076101.167
56107.53399.027
57106.21497.714
58104.84096.371
59103.05094.951
60101.72492.998
61100.08991.160
6298.74489.803
6397.19288.511
6495.95186.977
6594.36285.758
6693.22884.514
6791.28083.353
6889.75081.840
6988.37080.286
7086.53079.169
7185.13477.641
7283.45176.417
7381.83374.980
7480.49873.696
7578.99972.271
7677.51770.996
7775.96769.605
7874.27668.319
7972.66167.084
8071.38465.462
8169.83763.933
8268.49962.473
8366.26060.808
8464.76059.408
8563.07758.188
8661.34956.537
8759.30954.824
8857.62953.434
8955.82451.754
9053.86249.867
9151.68248.087
9249.67145.957
9346.92343.650
9444.03340.778
9542.05438.670
9638.36936.182
9734.49032.408
9831.18628.984
9924.48524.717


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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