Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10220.545437.044
20159.525249.205
30123.988171.984
4099.012121.408
5080.53989.366
6065.18164.059
7052.38046.757
8039.54432.380
9026.63919.326

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1555.8881787.890
2422.4311145.853
3350.273960.030
4316.777831.054
5293.344743.691
6275.039641.189
7258.781576.750
8245.365521.468
9232.685471.570
10220.545437.044
11212.600410.189
12205.421382.379
13198.363362.219
14191.996342.749
15184.905322.587
16178.422307.476
17173.153290.229
18168.569273.553
19163.596259.680
20159.525249.205
21155.244239.364
22151.141228.374
23147.561221.531
24144.272211.240
25140.898205.135
26137.101199.937
27133.804191.992
28130.253185.892
29126.993179.322
30123.988171.984
31121.156165.623
32118.457159.105
33115.432154.227
34112.422149.731
35110.027143.287
36107.805138.506
37105.653133.701
38103.470129.424
39101.107125.890
4099.012121.408
4196.869117.157
4294.734114.134
4392.454111.541
4490.811108.149
4589.242105.146
4687.378101.768
4785.50098.907
4884.00695.138
4982.21192.298
5080.53989.366
5178.77186.747
5277.23484.222
5375.64881.176
5474.07078.510
5572.68675.613
5671.36472.489
5769.60270.607
5868.15868.708
5966.60366.729
6065.18164.059
6163.87361.596
6262.95159.810
6361.26958.135
6459.76656.179
6558.63554.649
6657.10053.109
6755.89751.694
6854.63849.879
6953.59348.051
7052.38046.757
7150.74345.019
7249.55643.651
7348.18842.073
7446.75540.688
7545.73639.180
7644.21637.856
7742.82436.438
7841.70035.151
7940.72433.939
8039.54432.380
8138.13230.946
8236.91429.607
8335.70728.119
8434.54426.898
8533.33125.858
8631.98024.483
8730.55523.097
8829.15722.005
8927.87620.720
9026.63919.326
9125.12318.056
9223.49016.596
9322.03715.086
9420.47113.311
9518.81512.081
9616.62810.709
9714.7278.792
9812.1127.222
999.1725.488


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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