Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( May 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10394.261406.929
20332.124316.504
30289.592267.912
40257.479229.011
50231.950199.438
60208.001171.587
70183.176148.821
80155.369126.030
90126.37499.774

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1569.869755.245
2521.345622.851
3489.166576.449
4463.809541.035
5449.097515.182
6434.872482.487
7422.654460.358
8411.593440.212
9403.500420.949
10394.261406.929
11386.318395.582
12378.521383.377
13371.886374.212
14364.660365.082
15357.270355.314
16351.560347.764
17346.809338.888
18341.472330.018
19336.370322.405
20332.124316.504
21327.688310.832
22323.066304.341
23318.030300.211
24313.324293.863
25309.374290.016
26305.215286.689
27301.323281.510
28297.406277.452
29293.203272.997
30289.592267.912
31286.893263.405
32283.413258.687
33280.041255.085
34276.244251.709
35272.864246.770
36269.599243.025
37266.606239.188
38263.041235.709
39260.453232.785
40257.479229.011
41254.721225.360
42252.386222.718
43249.148220.422
44246.628217.371
45244.379214.627
46242.167211.488
47239.838208.783
48237.183205.154
49234.892202.367
50231.950199.438
51228.958196.778
52226.232194.169
53223.253190.966
54220.544188.107
55218.135184.939
56216.504181.448
57214.573179.303
58212.315177.107
59210.320174.784
60208.001171.587
61205.207168.574
62203.220166.346
63200.996164.224
64198.938161.702
65196.356159.696
66193.668157.646
67190.930155.731
68188.325153.235
69185.418150.669
70183.176148.821
71180.177146.292
72178.165144.264
73174.880141.882
74172.145139.749
75169.194137.381
76166.457135.261
77163.488132.945
78160.981130.800
79158.312128.739
80155.369126.030
81152.634123.471
82149.915121.025
83146.628118.233
84144.437115.881
85141.896113.830
86138.478111.051
87135.783108.160
88132.940105.813
89129.901102.971
90126.37499.774
91122.69896.751
92118.51393.127
93112.67289.191
94108.17384.278
95101.59680.660
9696.52876.378
9788.32069.856
9880.46263.904
9967.65656.443


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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