Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10322.706305.996
20286.311259.864
30260.918230.033
40238.014202.613
50217.825179.285
60198.083155.104
70178.675133.431
80153.440110.399
90116.88982.580

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1425.655424.020
2392.249386.356
3373.906371.580
4361.421359.422
5353.289350.405
6345.976337.835
7340.142328.968
8334.137320.646
9328.281312.301
10322.706305.996
11317.758300.736
12314.060294.894
13310.052290.435
14306.299285.940
15301.835280.964
16297.788276.987
17294.459272.310
18291.537267.507
19288.612263.246
20286.311259.864
21283.546256.577
22281.353252.893
23278.845250.300
24275.471246.496
25273.012244.096
26270.721242.020
27268.072238.840
28265.806236.299
29263.221233.327
30260.918230.033
31258.563226.997
32255.989223.892
33254.094221.423
34251.567218.975
35249.036215.591
36246.445212.865
37244.590210.125
38242.167207.553
39239.929205.427
40238.014202.613
41235.633199.872
42233.971197.828
43232.096196.097
44230.404193.707
45228.668191.542
46226.521189.104
47224.332186.878
48221.951183.949
49219.744181.716
50217.825179.285
51216.402177.063
52214.730174.824
53212.485172.186
54210.570169.643
55208.253167.043
56206.129163.862
57204.436161.968
58202.196160.043
59200.454157.916
60198.083155.104
61196.257152.272
62194.333150.190
63191.924148.233
64190.173145.813
65188.325143.917
66186.855141.967
67185.203140.135
68183.002137.729
69180.831135.237
70178.675133.431
71176.167130.943
72172.704128.936
73170.459126.563
74168.144124.426
75165.879122.038
76163.236119.888
77160.718117.526
78158.895115.327
79156.157113.205
80153.440110.399
81151.069107.736
82148.740105.177
83146.380102.243
84142.96499.760
85139.44897.589
86135.09894.636
87130.11091.556
88126.63989.049
89120.90186.007
90116.88982.580
91112.67379.338
92107.73675.454
93102.10871.242
9497.30466.006
9589.92962.175
9679.71057.675
9772.36850.919
9859.94744.889
9938.59937.563


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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