Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10135.228124.730
20105.60984.445
3088.10765.268
4074.80751.243
5064.23141.417
6055.06732.864
7046.57026.408
8038.24620.459
9028.30914.295

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1249.636331.066
2209.874243.354
3187.870215.283
4174.448194.799
5164.973180.361
6156.915162.733
7149.693151.205
8144.735140.995
9139.464131.489
10135.228124.730
11130.477119.358
12126.445113.681
13123.135109.485
14120.878105.365
15117.769101.022
16115.67097.712
17112.90693.872
18110.21990.093
19107.99786.895
20105.60984.445
21103.15582.115
22101.22379.478
2399.46877.816
2497.99575.287
2596.12473.769
2694.45172.465
2792.51470.453
2890.93668.890
2989.41867.190
3088.10765.268
3186.47463.581
3285.18861.832
3383.66560.509
3482.26859.278
3580.86257.494
3679.67256.155
3778.30354.794
3877.10653.570
3975.93952.550
4074.80751.243
4173.43049.990
4272.43249.090
4371.37548.313
4470.25747.287
4569.31046.371
4668.44845.331
4767.36044.441
4866.26743.258
4965.23142.357
5064.23141.417
5163.12240.570
5262.10139.746
5361.17838.742
5460.22137.853
5559.43636.877
5658.56235.812
5757.52835.164
5856.83034.504
5955.78133.810
6055.06732.864
6154.19631.981
6253.30531.334
6352.68030.722
6451.88030.000
6550.78129.430
6649.91928.852
6749.27528.315
6848.51727.621
6947.57726.913
7046.57026.408
7145.71025.722
7244.92325.176
7344.12024.541
7443.38723.977
7542.48723.356
7641.73522.804
7740.89022.208
7840.06921.660
7939.14121.138
8038.24620.459
8137.22619.825
8236.23919.226
8335.09618.549
8434.35017.986
8533.64617.500
8632.63316.848
8731.51116.180
8830.73915.644
8929.74915.004
9028.30914.295
9127.11613.636
9225.84612.861
9324.38712.037
9423.21111.035
9521.72510.317
9620.4119.489
9718.1288.275
9815.9677.219
9912.5925.967


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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