Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10156.813229.106
20123.110155.111
30102.610119.885
4086.89194.124
5074.47776.076
6063.92960.366
7054.54748.507
8043.80937.580
9032.51326.258

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1299.856608.109
2245.643446.998
3226.579395.436
4204.738357.810
5193.078331.291
6185.586298.911
7176.166277.736
8170.270258.982
9162.817241.522
10156.813229.106
11152.250219.240
12147.872208.811
13144.666201.105
14140.997193.536
15137.208185.559
16133.593179.479
17130.632172.427
18127.954165.485
19125.830159.610
20123.110155.111
21120.457150.830
22117.883145.986
23115.641142.934
24113.504138.288
25111.297135.500
26108.977133.106
27107.439129.409
28105.836126.539
29104.004123.416
30102.610119.885
31100.837116.787
3298.673113.575
3396.717111.145
3495.300108.884
3593.813105.607
3692.566103.146
3790.890100.647
3889.24198.399
3988.35696.525
4086.89194.124
4185.26591.822
4284.00290.170
4382.77388.742
4481.57786.858
4580.31585.175
4679.07583.265
4777.75981.631
4876.68879.457
4975.36577.802
5074.47776.076
5173.03774.520
5272.08873.006
5370.76071.162
5469.90369.530
5568.93967.737
5668.15065.781
5767.19064.589
5866.20963.377
5965.05162.104
6063.92960.366
6162.99058.744
6262.19757.555
6361.14856.431
6460.19855.105
6559.42254.058
6658.52152.995
6757.35452.010
6856.36950.734
6955.31049.435
7054.54748.507
7153.38147.247
7252.37246.244
7351.31845.077
7450.06944.041
7549.03942.900
7647.96541.888
7746.81540.791
7845.87239.785
7944.77738.827
8043.80937.580
8142.81436.415
8242.18335.314
8340.65434.071
8439.50233.036
8538.42132.144
8637.02330.947
8735.81429.720
8834.90428.736
8933.81927.560
9032.51326.258
9131.02725.048
9229.69923.623
9328.09522.109
9426.43320.269
9524.64418.950
9622.97617.429
9721.00515.199
9818.02513.259
9914.09810.961


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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