Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101099.5621324.073
20650.519683.847
30412.957410.042
40257.483247.308
50165.237157.153
60105.56295.679
7063.85459.767
8035.77134.492
9013.36515.932

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12429.1003466.691
22043.3742765.239
31859.0442488.919
41698.3322265.597
51532.2062095.421
61432.1141871.578
71333.7011714.928
81248.9461569.201
91172.0201427.764
101099.5621324.073
111037.4931240.052
12981.3101149.966
13922.7461082.773
14881.9211016.465
15841.875946.465
16792.580893.221
17756.659831.774
18720.992771.841
19676.457721.738
20650.519683.847
21615.496648.264
22592.675608.617
23568.188584.014
24539.539547.190
25513.884525.475
26490.214507.076
27474.225479.140
28451.235457.869
29430.372435.152
30412.957410.042
31393.411388.527
32375.365366.748
33354.942350.640
34337.939335.946
35326.124315.163
36310.861299.961
37296.369284.886
38285.890271.647
39273.542260.838
40257.483247.308
41247.086234.668
42238.325225.796
43227.724218.267
44216.772208.531
45208.010200.024
46197.104190.584
47188.595182.696
48180.166172.464
49171.916164.877
50165.237157.153
51158.614150.355
52152.838143.889
53146.142136.211
54140.533129.602
55134.427122.539
56128.864115.068
57121.929110.640
58117.041106.228
59111.678101.696
60105.56295.679
61100.75790.238
6296.86286.358
6392.18882.770
6488.22478.642
6583.43675.463
6678.53972.307
6774.83969.445
6870.69965.831
6967.38662.256
7063.85459.767
7160.87656.474
7258.02253.926
7354.67051.037
7452.01348.544
7548.82145.876
7646.13443.577
7743.80341.157
7840.87039.002
7938.19937.006
8035.77134.492
8133.19532.231
8230.54730.167
8327.95427.927
8425.99526.131
8523.66224.633
8621.60122.700
8719.25920.804
8817.13019.349
8915.22017.683
9013.36515.932
9111.96714.391
929.30512.685
937.74210.998
946.1599.119
954.6007.888
963.3926.587
971.9054.904
980.5413.654
990.0002.424


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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