Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10240.140437.044
20172.388249.205
30134.434171.984
40107.437121.408
5086.88389.366
6071.47264.059
7056.76446.757
8043.22732.380
9029.05519.326

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1598.9051787.890
2452.0051145.853
3381.547960.030
4343.389831.054
5322.870743.691
6300.182641.189
7281.437576.750
8266.160521.468
9251.735471.570
10240.140437.044
11230.761410.189
12223.496382.379
13214.022362.219
14207.260342.749
15201.727322.587
16193.835307.476
17187.833290.229
18182.767273.553
19176.951259.680
20172.388249.205
21167.999239.364
22164.072228.374
23159.820221.531
24156.557211.240
25152.784205.135
26149.203199.937
27145.362191.992
28141.802185.892
29138.040179.322
30134.434171.984
31131.228165.623
32127.809159.105
33124.667154.227
34122.203149.731
35119.667143.287
36117.759138.506
37114.884133.701
38112.136129.424
39109.813125.890
40107.437121.408
41105.365117.157
42103.402114.134
43101.315111.541
4498.838108.149
4596.861105.146
4694.562101.768
4792.54098.907
4890.74795.138
4988.64792.298
5086.88389.366
5185.27786.747
5283.76784.222
5382.19581.176
5480.71778.510
5578.71475.613
5676.98272.489
5775.30970.607
5873.74468.708
5972.45066.729
6071.47264.059
6169.56061.596
6267.76859.810
6366.70358.135
6465.27256.179
6563.89054.649
6662.44353.109
6761.20351.694
6859.54849.879
6958.36448.051
7056.76446.757
7155.35745.019
7254.24443.651
7352.78442.073
7451.37040.688
7550.18139.180
7648.48137.856
7747.06736.438
7845.83035.151
7944.58533.939
8043.22732.380
8142.16230.946
8240.49529.607
8339.17328.119
8438.00426.898
8536.51325.858
8635.10324.483
8733.43023.097
8832.06622.005
8930.38320.720
9029.05519.326
9127.42418.056
9225.92416.596
9324.05615.086
9422.56113.311
9520.70712.081
9618.74510.709
9716.6338.792
9813.3797.222
9910.4705.488


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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