Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102137.2742432.084
201312.9641256.104
30837.166753.173
40540.073454.260
50349.687288.661
60224.679175.746
70136.704109.781
8075.86263.357
9030.24129.264

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14571.8116367.688
23914.4905079.246
33567.1444571.697
43248.2074161.495
52959.6863848.911
62707.4243437.751
72548.6633150.014
82400.0832882.340
92258.1472622.545
102137.2742432.084
112016.4812277.752
121927.7282112.281
131822.6481988.860
141743.6131867.064
151659.2201738.485
161576.0751640.687
171504.7061527.819
181444.3011417.733
191392.2461325.702
201312.9641256.104
211252.7471190.745
221193.9781117.921
231141.9551072.729
241091.1121005.089
251043.840965.203
261005.270931.408
27959.647880.094
28919.920841.024
29883.229799.296
30837.166753.173
31802.508713.654
32761.616673.650
33732.135644.063
34699.698617.072
35676.000578.897
36645.545550.975
37616.455523.284
38589.447498.966
39567.178479.113
40540.073454.260
41512.477431.043
42489.732414.747
43460.719400.918
44443.400383.033
45428.707367.408
46413.221350.068
47395.565335.579
48377.442316.786
49363.702302.849
50349.687288.661
51334.888276.175
52319.102264.298
53306.043250.195
54290.729238.055
55279.965225.082
56268.443211.359
57257.789203.225
58245.433195.122
59234.776186.797
60224.679175.746
61213.237165.752
62204.334158.624
63192.717152.034
64184.117144.451
65176.695138.611
66170.080132.815
67162.397127.557
68152.609120.920
69144.811114.353
70136.704109.781
71128.616103.732
72121.64999.052
73115.06093.745
74110.27289.167
75104.85884.267
7698.41980.042
7793.08875.598
7887.75371.639
7982.38867.974
8075.86263.357
8170.51059.202
8266.53155.412
8360.61851.296
8455.24647.998
8551.73845.247
8646.93641.695
8742.22038.213
8838.31635.540
8934.41532.480
9030.24129.264
9125.80826.434
9220.95323.301
9317.99520.201
9414.44116.751
9510.34514.490
967.13212.099
974.6839.008
982.1056.712
990.0004.453


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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