Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104857.2146513.453
203617.3704592.960
302839.3253513.360
402265.0482667.304
501832.2772064.740
601477.2601548.640
701149.1771169.773
80841.139840.915
90507.241526.730

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18975.95212020.128
27595.85210223.876
36924.6309524.860
46508.2388953.382
56215.5448532.355
65960.5467950.399
75618.4227544.119
85366.1797166.742
95055.9726792.690
104857.2146513.453
114668.1266282.966
124511.5196029.894
134399.0835838.931
144239.7265648.511
154116.6775440.389
163995.0485276.141
173914.2815085.529
183793.1054892.830
193708.4944724.573
203617.3704592.960
213530.8974466.661
223444.6574327.138
233369.8844230.280
243270.9834090.188
253192.1224003.087
263135.4313928.539
273050.0263815.845
282987.5783727.100
292921.9813624.812
302839.3253513.360
312773.6063412.465
322695.1283311.066
332646.0253231.797
342595.3853154.367
352532.7883049.268
362476.6752966.254
372425.8122884.309
382359.8172808.726
392303.2822747.257
402265.0482667.304
412221.1382590.937
422161.5922534.964
432111.1272488.210
442060.3462424.610
452020.0402368.012
461980.1502305.360
471946.0072249.160
481902.6422176.715
491865.8512122.577
501832.2772064.740
511793.7672012.858
521762.4591961.528
531724.8051902.238
541684.8661846.305
551643.7801790.322
561606.3561723.498
571573.9691684.552
581545.1101645.612
591514.7471603.348
601477.2601548.640
611441.9741494.908
621404.9341456.230
631367.7761420.521
641337.6061377.224
651309.0901343.939
661272.4661310.293
671246.2601279.212
681219.8701239.171
691180.9691198.608
701149.1771169.773
711122.4541130.825
721085.1441100.026
731051.8301064.342
741026.6141032.862
75997.117998.412
76961.511968.035
77932.652935.348
78900.640905.546
79868.503877.351
80841.139840.915
81808.907807.188
82772.056775.568
83740.253740.214
84710.575711.047
85680.237686.085
86646.685652.941
87611.779619.326
88574.710592.670
89537.102561.159
90507.241526.730
91470.524495.165
92431.737458.604
93397.416420.468
94364.188375.170
95317.104343.466
96274.191307.746
97218.281257.112
98152.307214.894
9957.776167.334


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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