Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Feb 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104598.1283546.049
203649.4302500.495
303005.5221912.741
402504.4381452.132
502087.4341124.084
601724.675843.109
701396.636636.847
801067.743457.810
90697.861286.762

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17551.2206543.988
26648.4995566.074
36153.1275185.516
45697.7544874.392
55450.3484645.177
65260.6004328.349
75088.8524107.163
84907.6643901.712
94764.4143698.070
104598.1283546.049
114493.0903420.567
124376.6673282.789
134272.3173178.826
144184.2343075.157
154098.6242961.852
164006.0322872.432
173912.2292768.659
183818.0392663.750
193726.9852572.148
203649.4302500.495
213583.0642431.736
223494.7662355.777
233424.3642303.045
243361.3432226.776
253299.0422179.357
263235.4862138.772
273183.1242077.419
283115.3472029.105
293057.9041973.417
303005.5221912.741
312951.6391857.811
322894.4141802.608
332835.2051759.452
342786.8071717.298
352744.8791660.080
362690.0051614.885
372640.2551570.273
382595.5551529.124
392549.9061495.659
402504.4381452.132
412461.6881410.556
422423.8331380.083
432387.8111354.629
442344.2121320.004
452298.0141289.191
462252.3881255.082
472202.8001224.486
482164.7661185.045
492122.3571155.572
502087.4341124.084
512050.0861095.838
522021.7211067.893
531973.5661035.615
541943.2551005.164
551902.276974.685
561862.239938.305
571826.578917.102
581792.963895.903
591757.948872.893
601724.675843.109
611699.999813.856
621659.211792.799
631619.664773.359
641588.829749.787
651561.474731.666
661528.288713.349
671506.106696.428
681468.143674.628
691430.815652.545
701396.636636.847
711366.650615.643
721342.231598.875
731309.517579.448
741275.584562.310
751236.366543.555
761204.842527.017
771172.561509.221
781141.179492.997
791105.093477.647
801067.743457.810
811032.262439.449
82994.397422.234
83968.095402.987
84932.660387.107
85895.097373.518
86851.344355.474
87816.035337.173
88778.348322.661
89737.262305.506
90697.861286.762
91672.374269.577
92626.005249.673
93587.695228.911
94534.698204.250
95495.634186.989
96447.585167.543
97389.997139.977
98324.124116.992
99238.46091.100


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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