Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104295.7677044.987
202854.7344718.195
302112.0963492.656
401596.0862581.473
501210.1841959.316
60911.6901443.524
70651.8741074.560
80422.770760.939
90200.405467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19932.55414206.509
28174.17511834.557
36973.24210916.919
46342.22210170.245
55809.9919622.740
65407.4298870.530
75052.7478349.192
84783.8867868.311
94555.2617395.352
104295.7677044.987
114077.5576757.724
123870.0236444.496
133695.1576209.762
143543.2345977.172
153423.7115724.742
163293.5815526.905
173185.6575298.911
183060.0735070.236
192952.6764872.122
202854.7344718.195
212736.0914571.366
222650.5374410.191
232575.1374298.948
242503.7694139.001
252434.7164040.132
262359.6253955.865
272288.5713829.107
282235.0043729.823
292171.5223615.976
302112.0963492.656
312042.5223381.672
321980.9503270.765
331919.2403184.504
341874.2663100.621
351807.6622987.356
361758.1432898.376
371706.9902810.960
381672.0762730.700
391631.2752665.686
401596.0862581.473
411550.4272501.402
421504.4022442.943
431452.4832394.258
441409.3482328.245
451376.8442269.707
461337.9812205.132
471303.3162147.409
481273.3742073.279
491240.9012018.088
501210.1841959.316
511180.3471906.765
521152.5541854.928
531128.6971795.245
541101.3401739.130
551072.6531683.145
561042.7121616.556
571011.8871577.866
58985.9391539.267
59950.2231497.473
60911.6901443.524
61880.6841390.703
62852.3111352.781
63827.5401317.847
64804.0601275.584
65775.1701243.167
66750.5371210.462
67724.7931180.306
68699.0471141.538
69672.2361102.357
70651.8741074.560
71635.4321037.090
72600.4421007.521
73575.214973.330
74552.795943.229
75536.145910.353
76513.414881.420
77492.200850.349
78472.772822.075
79444.400795.374
80422.770760.939
81402.079729.138
82378.365699.387
83350.379666.198
84331.423638.877
85308.415615.539
86291.794584.617
87271.581553.330
88252.275528.578
89227.156499.382
90200.405467.569
91173.923438.481
92147.845404.891
93123.517369.975
9487.722328.675
9561.002299.887
9628.069267.582
970.000222.046
980.000184.342
990.000142.210


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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