Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013520.0207044.987
2010189.3524718.195
308163.2903492.656
406651.4602581.473
505370.8301959.316
604340.9581443.524
703387.7861074.560
802507.817760.939
901573.702467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126977.06514206.509
222220.66311834.557
319861.68010916.919
418137.05210170.245
516933.8519622.740
615955.3468870.530
715211.7028349.192
814506.6127868.311
913968.8507395.352
1013520.0207044.987
1113079.3356757.724
1212668.8156444.496
1312332.4606209.762
1411996.9095977.172
1511644.0175724.742
1611256.5925526.905
1711005.3675298.911
1810669.3675070.236
1910404.4024872.122
2010189.3524718.195
219922.1704571.366
229699.8964410.191
239498.9124298.948
249317.5364139.001
259101.9534040.132
268871.5963955.865
278676.6623829.107
288480.6873729.823
298330.3843615.976
308163.2903492.656
318041.3193381.672
327917.3173270.765
337706.8933184.504
347525.2413100.621
357362.8232987.356
367238.5032898.376
377112.3152810.960
386975.2672730.700
396803.0222665.686
406651.4602581.473
416530.6902501.402
426408.3132442.943
436261.0852394.258
446159.1952328.245
456015.4632269.707
465897.6312205.132
475751.8132147.409
485654.9772073.279
495507.9892018.088
505370.8301959.316
515253.9151906.765
525115.3611854.928
535017.5321795.245
544915.0621739.130
554796.4931683.145
564730.3951616.556
574628.6941577.866
584526.0091539.267
594430.5411497.473
604340.9581443.524
614241.5251390.703
624151.8801352.781
634077.9781317.847
643978.7611275.584
653882.4721243.167
663786.4691210.462
673700.4951180.306
683615.0631141.538
693505.3631102.357
703387.7861074.560
713297.3681037.090
723221.6871007.521
733133.040973.330
743043.601943.229
752940.363910.353
762851.027881.420
772760.970850.349
782681.899822.075
792609.046795.374
802507.817760.939
812408.047729.138
822306.934699.387
832213.794666.198
842134.503638.877
852032.741615.539
861947.074584.617
871857.084553.330
881763.232528.578
891670.899499.382
901573.702467.569
911470.025438.481
921366.041404.891
931266.861369.975
941157.758328.675
951031.631299.887
96879.245267.582
97703.351222.046
98564.737184.342
99381.636142.210


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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