Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109045.7787044.987
206652.4134718.195
305162.6183492.656
404036.9042581.473
503216.7031959.316
602550.0641443.524
701985.8301074.560
801416.911760.939
90883.388467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118147.02014206.509
215667.17211834.557
313436.27210916.919
412504.88010170.245
511670.4819622.740
610943.0448870.530
710331.7478349.192
89826.1927868.311
99424.0747395.352
109045.7787044.987
118737.1976757.724
128442.7766444.496
138163.7326209.762
147849.8575977.172
157621.5495724.742
167351.4885526.905
177200.8495298.911
187017.3315070.236
196808.5994872.122
206652.4134718.195
216461.9124571.366
226316.0414410.191
236149.5664298.948
245971.1074139.001
255807.4784040.132
265685.9013955.865
275568.5043829.107
285455.4273729.823
295294.3303615.976
305162.6183492.656
315024.6473381.672
324936.3173270.765
334863.8403184.504
344730.3033100.621
354619.3092987.356
364503.9932898.376
374368.0762810.960
384251.9462730.700
394145.3462665.686
404036.9042581.473
413948.8172501.402
423876.0192442.943
433786.0502394.258
443706.4652328.245
453608.4382269.707
463519.9442205.132
473444.2982147.409
483356.3032073.279
493289.2182018.088
503216.7031959.316
513134.5121906.765
523068.7701854.928
532997.8291795.245
542931.3341739.130
552871.5081683.145
562793.5991616.556
572737.9891577.866
582684.4481539.267
592613.2501497.473
602550.0641443.524
612494.7601390.703
622442.5441352.781
632384.0991317.847
642328.8171275.584
652279.6021243.167
662223.7821210.462
672155.7971180.306
682092.3491141.538
692038.1281102.357
701985.8301074.560
711925.2931037.090
721867.6161007.521
731809.834973.330
741761.156943.229
751698.392910.353
761648.681881.420
771593.246850.349
781537.812822.075
791473.612795.374
801416.911760.939
811356.874729.138
821305.380699.387
831238.569666.198
841194.890638.877
851139.767615.539
861099.561584.617
871040.165553.330
88985.972528.578
89936.752499.382
90883.388467.569
91799.784438.481
92740.257404.891
93682.059369.975
94606.977328.675
95543.024299.887
96445.365267.582
97360.332222.046
98255.458184.342
99147.805142.210


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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