Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile86.10184.274
Median288.220288.661
Mean689.662832.525
75% Quartile899.129964.738
Interquartile Range813.028880.463

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14292.8126367.688
23697.8595079.246
33340.8004571.697
43051.7384161.495
52752.1093848.911
62542.1203437.751
72346.1063150.014
82172.3642882.340
92067.6262622.545
101958.2692432.084
111828.1412277.752
121730.0812112.281
131631.4541988.860
141547.3041867.064
151461.0271738.485
161400.5341640.687
171354.3661527.819
181285.5271417.733
191213.7661325.702
201146.6231256.104
211088.9151190.745
221038.7391117.921
23990.3971072.729
24946.8771005.089
25899.278965.203
26854.582931.408
27820.228880.094
28791.201841.024
29755.279799.296
30719.765753.173
31678.993713.654
32649.339673.650
33622.073644.063
34592.622617.072
35572.010578.897
36542.650550.975
37519.299523.284
38498.975498.966
39478.595479.113
40455.656454.260
41436.977431.043
42417.425414.747
43396.526400.918
44379.717383.033
45361.764367.408
46346.236350.068
47333.787335.579
48319.910316.786
49301.823302.849
50288.220288.661
51277.078276.175
52266.636264.298
53254.845250.195
54243.322238.055
55232.592225.082
56223.714211.359
57214.006203.225
58206.222195.122
59197.147186.797
60187.662175.746
61179.586165.752
62171.313158.624
63161.513152.034
64154.194144.451
65146.406138.611
66139.730132.815
67133.233127.557
68125.903120.920
69118.625114.353
70113.633109.781
71106.872103.732
72102.16999.052
7395.98793.745
7491.34489.167
7586.01284.267
7681.35280.042
7777.04075.598
7872.14071.639
7967.38467.974
8063.39263.357
8158.74559.202
8253.34955.412
8349.51351.296
8445.26247.998
8541.55445.247
8637.43341.695
8733.81538.213
8829.97835.540
8926.98732.480
9023.92929.264
9119.94226.434
9216.69023.301
9313.40720.201
9410.82916.751
958.06014.490
965.55612.099
972.9509.008
980.4796.712
990.0004.453


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence