Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile384.475
Median1109.017
Mean2220.639
75% Quartile2986.242
Interquartile Range2601.767

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112760.573
210567.545
39710.070
49006.977
58487.747
67768.397
77265.275
86797.562
96334.007
105988.326
115703.489
125391.553
135156.955
144923.900
154670.437
164471.536
174242.210
184012.304
193813.411
203659.202
213512.471
223351.943
233241.546
243083.509
252986.291
262903.751
272780.208
282684.009
292574.382
302456.531
312351.344
322247.130
332166.743
342089.167
351985.409
361904.742
371826.257
381754.896
391697.603
401624.097
411554.976
421505.001
431463.707
441408.202
451359.460
461306.228
471259.133
481199.348
491155.359
501109.017
511068.030
521028.022
53982.493
54940.216
55898.563
56849.721
57821.698
58794.009
59764.332
60726.502
61689.994
62664.116
63640.526
64612.313
65590.918
66569.552
67550.050
68525.263
69500.543
70483.210
71460.121
72442.126
73421.573
74403.707
75384.444
76367.712
77349.977
78334.054
79319.208
80300.342
81283.207
82267.432
83250.134
84236.137
85224.360
86209.015
87193.798
88181.987
89168.323
90153.773
91140.791
92126.199
93111.505
9494.786
9583.584
9671.484
9755.345
9842.878
9930.039


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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