Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2098.383998.467
Median3562.3862064.740
Mean4211.1152897.745
75% Quartile5697.1334003.043
Interquartile Range3598.7503004.576

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113137.09112020.128
211578.06210223.876
310746.6069524.860
49951.2598953.382
59582.9908532.355
69161.2417950.399
78900.3267544.119
88573.0687166.742
98289.4266792.690
108031.8776513.453
117797.2086282.966
127593.5346029.894
137418.6585838.931
147273.6255648.511
157093.0155440.389
166934.1515276.141
176791.0425085.529
186627.4354892.830
196473.2284724.573
206308.1194592.960
216190.7954466.661
226042.6334327.138
235906.6414230.280
245812.0674090.188
255697.6864003.087
265574.4333928.539
275483.2143815.845
285356.9053727.100
295266.9673624.812
305149.2223513.360
315070.8273412.465
324981.3113311.066
334873.9513231.797
344795.7803154.367
354717.8323049.268
364635.8152966.254
374532.4142884.309
384457.7382808.726
394372.6142747.257
404289.1362667.304
414225.8852590.937
424138.3502534.964
434074.9532488.210
444010.4052424.610
453939.1072368.012
463864.7822305.360
473785.9232249.160
483693.4182176.715
493629.3462122.577
503562.3862064.740
513502.6462012.858
523451.0291961.528
533368.7031902.238
543302.6311846.305
553246.2771790.322
563173.6251723.498
573106.5071684.552
583061.6611645.612
593001.9751603.348
602948.0771548.640
612887.4411494.908
622828.3871456.230
632761.9071420.521
642699.7631377.224
652652.1401343.939
662604.0411310.293
672543.5261279.212
682494.6141239.171
692436.4251198.608
702377.7591169.773
712318.6621130.825
722270.8511100.026
732208.6871064.342
742158.0941032.862
752096.026998.412
762031.323968.035
771985.216935.348
781930.086905.546
791869.881877.351
801798.155840.915
811740.998807.188
821696.596775.568
831635.531740.214
841577.268711.047
851512.014686.085
861436.352652.941
871376.922619.326
881311.872592.670
891235.107561.159
901174.312526.730
911120.049495.165
921055.921458.604
93977.444420.468
94912.086375.170
95823.600343.466
96741.697307.746
97660.352257.112
98530.102214.894
99374.592167.334


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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