Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile267.263337.641
Median449.362595.886
Mean524.768742.419
75% Quartile703.0231002.630
Interquartile Range435.760664.989

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11699.0432581.087
21508.0952224.000
31381.3292085.776
41289.7741973.124
51208.4281890.336
61151.4401776.192
71102.1981696.689
81069.5201622.960
91035.0761549.969
101006.5301495.518
11974.5341450.584
12944.9731401.243
13921.9781363.997
14892.1841326.834
15868.6391286.177
16848.1791254.052
17833.1771216.714
18813.9021178.889
19794.5371145.784
20775.9071119.829
21757.6901094.865
22743.2811067.213
23730.5981047.967
24717.5671020.049
25703.0581002.639
26689.956987.702
27675.251965.056
28663.622947.163
29649.289926.468
30636.315903.826
31624.899883.238
32616.752862.453
33605.030846.134
34592.665830.130
35585.396808.302
36574.262790.968
37560.289773.772
38552.251757.832
39540.013744.809
40532.057727.788
41524.126711.438
42516.324699.394
43507.927689.292
44496.854675.490
45488.064663.144
46480.186649.407
47471.904637.018
48464.391620.950
49456.548608.868
50449.362595.886
51438.488584.174
52428.791572.522
53421.251558.978
54414.145546.114
55407.334533.152
56399.979517.560
57393.565508.410
58386.719499.213
59378.593489.175
60371.169476.092
61364.104463.139
62355.258453.749
63347.737445.029
64342.215434.389
65334.827426.157
66328.209417.788
67322.172410.013
68314.170399.932
69306.538389.644
70300.665382.282
71293.758372.272
72287.380364.300
73281.558354.999
74274.242346.736
75267.238337.626
76259.567329.534
77251.579320.762
78244.090312.704
79236.885305.025
80230.087295.018
81224.030285.668
82216.827276.822
83209.998266.836
84201.669258.517
85194.710251.337
86185.973241.714
87175.980231.842
88167.898223.931
89159.315214.477
90151.218204.013
91142.030194.289
92130.789182.855
93119.746170.717
94109.160155.987
9598.314145.451
9683.002133.329
9768.523115.618
9849.631100.282
9921.51182.221


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence