Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile252.026252.352
Median348.020366.331
Mean377.296428.039
75% Quartile472.965532.624
Interquartile Range220.938280.272

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1911.7101387.249
2815.0721144.065
3764.7741058.832
4726.216993.784
5700.744946.296
6672.131886.241
7655.881845.596
8643.060808.591
9626.968773.207
10611.259747.455
11599.747726.613
12583.614704.195
13572.923687.360
14562.127670.590
15551.119652.647
16540.741638.780
17531.882622.475
18523.272606.183
19515.019592.199
20507.218581.360
21501.593570.942
22494.660559.020
23485.995551.434
24480.077539.774
25472.971532.707
26466.269526.597
27458.135517.082
28452.911509.629
29446.306501.446
30440.600492.106
31435.840483.828
32430.623475.162
33425.109468.546
34420.100462.344
35413.065453.272
36408.164446.393
37402.771439.346
38398.992432.955
39395.292427.585
40391.516420.652
41386.576413.945
42381.788409.093
43377.917404.875
44373.532399.272
45369.145394.231
46365.357388.465
47360.997383.497
48357.395376.831
49352.414371.711
50348.020366.331
51344.685361.445
52339.555356.654
53337.040350.770
54333.028345.519
55328.641339.700
56324.948333.286
57321.656329.348
58318.420325.314
59314.804321.048
60311.076315.175
61307.230309.640
62303.791305.548
63299.886301.651
64296.415297.018
65292.255293.332
66288.604289.567
67284.888286.051
68280.795281.465
69277.080276.751
70273.461273.357
71269.085268.712
72264.779264.987
73260.601260.611
74255.474256.695
75251.975252.345
76247.465248.450
77243.012244.196
78239.306240.256
79234.687236.471
80230.204231.494
81225.775226.794
82220.954222.301
83217.468217.173
84213.415212.852
85209.481209.086
86205.806203.980
87201.329198.671
88195.338194.360
89190.205189.139
90186.134183.266
91180.333177.714
92171.432171.058
93163.526163.829
94155.146154.803
95147.150148.158
96136.494140.293
97126.583128.312
98113.010117.381
9994.065103.676


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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