Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Probability distribution for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile474.521252.352
Median636.183366.331
Mean668.582428.039
75% Quartile822.448532.624
Interquartile Range347.927280.272

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11444.0911387.249
21333.1661144.065
31261.5151058.832
41205.461993.784
51162.953946.296
61118.613886.241
71086.260845.596
81059.463808.591
91041.572773.207
101022.903747.455
111000.171726.613
12981.240704.195
13966.124687.360
14951.541670.590
15938.803652.647
16926.864638.780
17910.370622.475
18897.243606.183
19885.112592.199
20874.197581.360
21864.103570.942
22852.237559.020
23842.827551.434
24832.518539.774
25822.513532.707
26813.152526.597
27803.284517.082
28794.509509.629
29786.254501.446
30775.513492.106
31766.272483.828
32758.898475.162
33751.234468.546
34743.054462.344
35735.379453.272
36725.569446.393
37718.528439.346
38710.888432.955
39704.672427.585
40698.903420.652
41692.302413.945
42685.578409.093
43679.708404.875
44672.940399.272
45666.784394.231
46659.660388.465
47654.181383.497
48648.721376.831
49643.308371.711
50636.183366.331
51628.572361.445
52620.970356.654
53615.997350.770
54609.558345.519
55603.020339.700
56596.305333.286
57590.107329.348
58583.861325.314
59577.659321.048
60571.476315.175
61566.005309.640
62559.867305.548
63553.616301.651
64547.709297.018
65542.944293.332
66537.667289.567
67530.635286.051
68525.581281.465
69517.655276.751
70511.206273.357
71503.675268.712
72497.704264.987
73488.662260.611
74481.294256.695
75474.421252.345
76465.758248.450
77458.170244.196
78452.314240.256
79444.965236.471
80435.047231.494
81429.487226.794
82422.071222.301
83416.473217.173
84409.674212.852
85402.094209.086
86394.579203.980
87385.285198.671
88376.750194.360
89365.969189.139
90358.229183.266
91350.684177.714
92338.466171.058
93325.278163.829
94315.434154.803
95301.464148.158
96283.912140.293
97258.939128.312
98241.179117.381
99208.373103.676


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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