Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2003) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2006) (GL)
Apr219.555186.51815.368261.660905.393
Apr-May339.602311.38250.766379.4201136.605
Apr-Jun413.262407.67970.080448.7861211.970

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101058.8741495.518
20824.9341119.829
30681.240903.826
40574.266727.788
50481.777595.886
60402.152476.092
70328.207382.282
80252.607295.018
90168.136204.013

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11760.5012581.087
21566.5682224.000
31436.3202085.776
41348.9741973.124
51265.9991890.336
61200.2641776.192
71159.8731696.689
81121.7041622.960
91088.7221549.969
101058.8741495.518
111029.3311450.584
121000.2871401.243
13974.3941363.997
14945.2081326.834
15922.7541286.177
16900.6481254.052
17882.3621216.714
18863.5021178.889
19846.2641145.784
20824.9341119.829
21810.6141094.865
22791.9451067.213
23778.8621047.967
24764.7181020.049
25752.7731002.639
26736.086987.702
27720.505965.056
28709.370947.163
29691.644926.468
30681.240903.826
31669.857883.238
32658.119862.453
33647.342846.134
34636.592830.130
35627.012808.302
36616.733790.968
37604.662773.772
38590.222757.832
39581.158744.809
40574.266727.788
41565.416711.438
42555.953699.394
43545.808689.292
44534.995675.490
45525.853663.144
46517.029649.407
47507.823637.018
48500.299620.950
49490.877608.868
50481.777595.886
51473.671584.174
52464.160572.522
53454.089558.978
54446.794546.114
55440.972533.152
56433.458517.560
57424.658508.410
58416.471499.213
59409.221489.175
60402.152476.092
61394.405463.139
62387.556453.749
63378.007445.029
64371.392434.389
65363.689426.157
66357.730417.788
67349.999410.013
68342.500399.932
69334.423389.644
70328.207382.282
71321.060372.272
72312.877364.300
73305.828354.999
74298.300346.736
75291.838337.626
76283.691329.534
77275.024320.762
78268.440312.704
79260.856305.025
80252.607295.018
81246.034285.668
82237.897276.822
83231.996266.836
84222.056258.517
85214.293251.337
86205.139241.714
87194.783231.842
88184.512223.931
89177.233214.477
90168.136204.013
91157.917194.289
92147.410182.855
93134.682170.717
94123.426155.987
95110.809145.451
9696.263133.329
9779.714115.618
9858.735100.282
9931.29182.221


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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