Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep25.47034.9593.88729.72260.411
Sep-Oct42.56351.7385.69460.028166.600
Sep-Nov63.94573.3886.65290.365333.200

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10149.637229.106
20117.325155.111
3096.519119.885
4082.15494.124
5070.22676.076
6060.29960.366
7051.04048.507
8041.31637.580
9030.18226.258

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1282.285608.109
2239.991446.998
3215.863395.436
4197.781357.810
5186.440331.291
6176.124298.911
7167.905277.736
8160.821258.982
9154.556241.522
10149.637229.106
11145.615219.240
12140.841208.811
13136.001201.105
14133.195193.536
15130.913185.559
16127.929179.479
17124.365172.427
18122.188165.485
19119.878159.610
20117.325155.111
21115.103150.830
22112.937145.986
23109.989142.934
24107.475138.288
25105.903135.500
26103.659133.106
27101.811129.409
2899.870126.539
2998.231123.416
3096.519119.885
3195.211116.787
3293.615113.575
3391.842111.145
3490.289108.884
3588.873105.607
3687.693103.146
3786.598100.647
3885.14998.399
3983.73896.525
4082.15494.124
4180.91691.822
4279.84990.170
4378.62788.742
4477.49986.858
4576.37285.175
4674.90483.265
4773.93181.631
4872.59179.457
4971.42477.802
5070.22676.076
5169.10374.520
5268.39773.006
5367.26371.162
5466.19969.530
5565.36667.737
5664.02365.781
5763.34064.589
5862.49963.377
5961.46862.104
6060.29960.366
6159.41658.744
6258.53057.555
6357.64256.431
6456.95055.105
6556.12554.058
6654.97752.995
6753.92452.010
6852.91250.734
6952.02249.435
7051.04048.507
7150.15747.247
7249.37346.244
7348.38045.077
7447.07444.041
7546.07642.900
7645.21941.888
7744.46440.791
7843.38139.785
7942.31938.827
8041.31637.580
8140.57936.415
8239.58435.314
8338.35134.071
8437.00833.036
8536.10832.144
8634.92330.947
8733.78529.720
8832.64728.736
8931.53027.560
9030.18226.258
9129.03725.048
9227.73023.623
9326.22022.109
9424.52720.269
9523.07018.950
9620.69717.429
9719.36115.199
9816.43913.259
9913.21510.961


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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