Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct16.96057.81322.8161.80726.714106.189
Oct-Nov38.642102.05331.6752.76554.199272.789
Oct-Dec129.808204.49135.6723.586220.7291736.750

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10275.093437.044
20196.796249.205
30154.130171.984
40122.635121.408
5099.09289.366
6080.73164.059
7065.42046.757
8049.55832.380
9033.47819.326

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1656.1601787.890
2518.2901145.853
3435.126960.030
4392.435831.054
5365.412743.691
6343.275641.189
7321.802576.750
8305.232521.468
9287.379471.570
10275.093437.044
11263.486410.189
12252.821382.379
13244.890362.219
14237.781342.749
15230.216322.587
16221.765307.476
17214.997290.229
18207.612273.553
19202.789259.680
20196.796249.205
21192.061239.364
22186.285228.374
23181.140221.531
24177.704211.240
25174.832205.135
26169.094199.937
27164.999191.992
28161.196185.892
29157.506179.322
30154.130171.984
31150.538165.623
32146.674159.105
33142.652154.227
34139.381149.731
35136.316143.287
36133.983138.506
37130.770133.701
38127.691129.424
39125.012125.890
40122.635121.408
41120.200117.157
42117.770114.134
43115.111111.541
44112.757108.149
45110.481105.146
46108.392101.768
47105.78698.907
48103.41795.138
49101.30692.298
5099.09289.366
5196.77886.747
5294.72484.222
5393.04381.176
5491.43678.510
5589.64575.613
5687.90272.489
5786.22270.607
5884.14368.708
5982.43466.729
6080.73164.059
6179.30761.596
6277.98059.810
6376.39858.135
6474.65656.179
6573.01954.649
6671.40953.109
6769.44151.694
6868.28649.879
6966.82148.051
7065.42046.757
7163.81245.019
7262.19543.651
7360.36742.073
7458.75140.688
7557.51439.180
7655.88937.856
7754.12436.438
7852.52535.151
7951.07533.939
8049.55832.380
8148.17530.946
8246.54629.607
8345.00428.119
8443.72226.898
8542.33225.858
8640.14124.483
8738.34823.097
8836.80622.005
8935.16620.720
9033.47819.326
9131.35418.056
9229.76516.596
9327.89015.086
9426.01813.311
9523.94112.081
9621.62010.709
9719.1918.792
9815.5527.222
9912.2635.488


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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