Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct16.96057.81322.8161.80726.714106.189
Oct-Nov38.642102.05331.6752.76554.199272.789
Oct-Dec129.808204.49135.6723.586220.7291736.750

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10193.587237.935
20139.091135.672
30108.67293.631
4086.62466.097
5070.66548.652
6057.53234.875
7046.26425.456
8035.07417.629
9023.89710.521

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1461.264973.362
2367.372623.824
3308.602522.659
4278.356452.442
5254.166404.880
6239.463349.075
7226.338313.994
8213.240283.897
9200.950256.732
10193.587237.935
11185.114223.315
12179.598208.174
13173.522197.199
14167.934186.599
15162.614175.623
16156.483167.396
17151.552158.006
18146.300148.927
19142.476141.375
20139.091135.672
21135.556130.314
22132.404124.331
23129.054120.606
24125.787115.003
25122.657111.679
26119.346108.850
27116.605104.524
28113.938101.203
29111.15997.626
30108.67293.631
31106.32890.168
32103.86486.620
33101.56383.964
3499.13781.516
3596.99778.008
3694.59875.405
3792.66272.789
3890.59670.461
3988.39768.537
4086.62466.097
4184.96863.783
4283.21962.137
4381.70760.725
4480.17858.878
4578.18657.243
4676.57755.405
4775.30453.847
4873.73451.795
4972.18050.249
5070.66548.652
5169.01347.227
5267.75445.852
5366.39944.194
5465.29942.742
5563.66841.165
5662.46139.465
5760.87538.440
5859.80537.406
5958.59636.329
6057.53234.875
6156.33933.534
6255.40132.562
6354.10931.650
6453.19330.585
6552.07229.752
6650.81428.914
6749.74028.143
6848.68827.155
6947.52626.160
7046.26425.456
7145.26424.509
7244.17223.764
7342.90922.905
7441.83222.151
7540.85721.330
7639.38220.609
7738.15219.837
7837.36519.137
7936.22118.477
8035.07417.629
8134.09216.847
8232.97216.119
8331.86815.309
8430.92114.644
8529.64214.077
8628.50313.329
8727.47612.575
8826.62411.980
8925.31411.280
9023.89710.521
9122.5419.830
9221.4579.035
9320.2948.213
9418.5697.247
9517.2636.577
9615.4765.830
9713.6334.787
9811.5693.932
998.7032.988


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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