Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2008) (GL)
Dec91.166102.4393.9970.821166.53024.936
Dec-Jan472.125367.877780.0573.964518.6531161.305
Dec-Feb1264.494704.810915.63228.3411715.1846170.390

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103260.159
201992.139
301337.382
40884.189
50603.770
60395.522
70263.069
80163.512
9083.717

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16947.100
25753.174
35286.348
44903.571
54620.892
64229.264
73955.355
83700.723
93448.355
103260.159
113105.089
122935.265
132807.545
142680.665
152542.675
162434.390
172309.541
182184.375
192076.094
201992.139
211912.257
221824.862
231764.760
241678.721
251625.794
261580.858
271513.598
281461.226
291401.543
301337.382
311280.117
321223.381
331179.616
341137.382
351080.895
361036.978
37994.249
38955.399
39924.207
40884.189
41846.559
42819.351
43796.870
44766.652
45740.116
46711.136
47685.496
48652.948
49628.999
50603.770
51581.456
52559.675
53534.888
54511.872
55489.195
56462.604
57447.348
58432.274
59416.117
60395.522
61375.646
62361.557
63348.714
64333.355
65321.707
66310.075
67299.458
68285.963
69272.505
70263.069
71250.499
72240.702
73229.512
74219.786
75209.299
76200.190
77190.534
78181.865
79173.783
80163.512
81154.183
82145.595
83136.178
84128.558
85122.146
86113.792
87105.507
8899.077
8991.638
9083.717
9176.649
9268.705
9360.705
9451.603
9545.505
9638.917
9730.131
9823.344
9916.354


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence