Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2009) (GL)
Jan372.277265.438776.0602.223352.1241136.369
Jan-Feb1147.704602.371911.63545.9391548.6546145.454
Jan-Mar1788.5491390.6801126.29990.2322230.6676461.644

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103693.6783835.426
202618.5932568.676
302002.0261901.469
401519.6041405.403
501183.6741066.689
60932.546785.882
70706.832585.011
80495.113414.270
90281.053254.553

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18103.0157734.295
26549.7506442.959
35730.6085943.379
45164.6165536.876
54816.9735238.804
64505.7624829.286
74255.4744545.460
84040.4864283.659
93860.0804026.171
103693.6783835.426
113515.7573679.034
123387.3963508.507
133287.7813380.713
143170.7383254.087
153057.6773116.659
162956.2303008.953
172869.2412884.828
182768.4932760.333
192688.0762652.476
202618.5932568.676
212539.4382488.739
222461.9442400.992
232403.6242340.429
242342.6172253.351
252274.7312199.525
262215.1672153.649
272162.9902084.639
282111.0642030.587
292052.0881968.607
302002.0261901.469
311953.5651841.047
321890.6711780.667
331853.5231733.705
341802.5041688.037
351757.3421626.374
361698.2571577.931
371650.3771530.340
381605.8441486.645
391566.3511451.251
401519.6041405.403
411476.4891361.811
421436.3971329.985
431409.0841303.480
441376.5851267.541
451344.4931235.672
461311.5701200.516
471275.0961169.091
481243.8531128.733
491214.8571098.685
501183.6741066.689
511153.6031038.079
521126.3161009.858
531102.994977.366
541077.302946.816
551055.383916.336
561032.771880.084
571008.795859.020
58979.410838.007
59955.380815.253
60932.546785.882
61909.240757.125
62885.885736.480
63858.045717.461
64834.153694.452
65811.929676.804
66791.706658.998
67772.140642.581
68752.575621.475
69726.650600.144
70706.832585.011
71687.325564.612
72663.287548.514
73638.464529.900
74619.203513.512
75599.993495.614
76580.340479.862
77553.468462.946
78534.854447.553
79515.479433.017
80495.113414.270
81474.035396.957
82446.512380.760
83424.718362.691
84407.542347.817
85388.293335.111
86366.601318.277
87349.265301.243
88331.844287.768
89308.198271.873
90281.053254.553
91262.424238.718
92240.333220.431
93215.967201.421
94187.101178.937
95162.655163.264
96124.797145.677
9792.032120.886
9856.985100.359
998.83677.422


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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