Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2009) (GL)
Jan372.277265.438776.0602.223352.1241136.369
Jan-Feb1147.704602.371911.63545.9391548.6546145.454
Jan-Mar1788.5491390.6801126.29990.2322230.6676461.644

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106596.5807044.987
204641.6984718.195
303525.4483492.656
402673.1202581.473
502073.4861959.316
601624.9421443.524
701226.9431074.560
80858.618760.939
90479.391467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114733.59714206.509
211803.71511834.557
310309.29910916.919
49257.57910170.245
58575.6289622.740
68098.1438870.530
77600.6038349.192
87209.7707868.311
96895.0947395.352
106596.5807044.987
116244.8686757.724
126009.3436444.496
135812.6976209.762
145593.9355977.172
155449.5035724.742
165245.1765526.905
175088.6645298.911
184930.2945070.236
194772.4264872.122
204641.6984718.195
214506.3514571.366
224361.0974410.191
234223.7604298.948
244122.8494139.001
254037.0994040.132
263949.2153955.865
273838.7593829.107
283731.4753729.823
293645.1003615.976
303525.4483492.656
313431.7983381.672
323334.0223270.765
333254.6933184.504
343166.6223100.621
353077.2062987.356
362985.5752898.376
372896.1182810.960
382821.5102730.700
392738.1272665.686
402673.1202581.473
412603.6252501.402
422532.2372442.943
432467.4222394.258
442415.3652328.245
452356.7222269.707
462306.5102205.132
472241.4302147.409
482183.1492073.279
492134.4192018.088
502073.4861959.316
512023.9681906.765
521972.9731854.928
531923.7211795.245
541881.0521739.130
551838.9251683.145
561797.8631616.556
571753.6601577.866
581716.8401539.267
591671.3371497.473
601624.9421443.524
611590.0871390.703
621543.3961352.781
631496.2271317.847
641451.4041275.584
651407.6341243.167
661371.8131210.462
671345.5601180.306
681310.7991141.538
691276.0191102.357
701226.9431074.560
711184.8051037.090
721143.3651007.521
731111.092973.330
741074.837943.229
751032.861910.353
761000.058881.420
77965.110850.349
78926.440822.075
79888.055795.374
80858.618760.939
81816.115729.138
82775.777699.387
83741.226666.198
84700.165638.877
85666.534615.539
86631.771584.617
87602.539553.330
88568.037528.578
89525.164499.382
90479.391467.569
91446.371438.481
92406.081404.891
93366.051369.975
94325.856328.675
95275.840299.887
96209.488267.582
97147.815222.046
9888.964184.342
994.620142.210


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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