Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun73.108153.15096.29716.62361.668324.060
Jun-Jul121.547281.432185.94025.467116.509389.473
Jun-Aug154.186340.500236.65230.459152.890426.455

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10355.479442.039
20300.719362.492
30267.035316.883
40239.701278.293
50213.901247.529
60191.145217.190
70169.274190.906
80145.654163.337
90113.008129.346

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1527.688712.143
2467.337613.723
3440.997578.500
4423.599550.837
5407.302531.057
6393.196504.483
7380.769486.411
8370.034469.939
9362.803453.878
10355.479442.039
11348.940432.350
12340.945421.787
13334.600413.859
14328.857405.984
15323.318397.401
16318.712390.639
17313.206382.797
18308.668374.866
19304.029367.930
20300.719362.492
21297.132357.260
22293.849351.459
23290.002347.416
24286.381341.542
25282.028337.872
26278.543334.718
27276.331329.925
28272.639326.127
29270.495321.721
30267.035316.883
31264.343312.464
32260.990307.983
33258.174304.450
34255.750300.970
35252.799296.197
36250.459292.385
37248.050288.582
38245.875285.036
39242.216282.123
40239.701278.293
41237.009274.588
42234.357271.843
43231.119269.528
44227.963266.347
45225.598263.483
46223.158260.274
47220.792257.359
48218.299253.548
49215.709250.658
50213.901247.529
51211.416244.682
52209.381241.828
53206.541238.481
54204.195235.270
55201.500232.003
56199.717228.028
57197.368225.671
58195.206223.283
59193.192220.654
60191.145217.190
61189.382213.718
62187.130211.173
63185.350208.787
64183.279205.846
65181.779203.546
66178.714201.186
67175.754198.973
68173.710196.073
69171.221193.075
70169.274190.906
71166.796187.922
72164.438185.516
73162.304182.675
74160.261180.119
75158.116177.264
76155.074174.694
77153.429171.870
78150.432169.239
79148.010166.699
80145.654163.337
81143.251160.139
82140.346157.061
83136.836153.522
84133.613150.517
85130.115147.881
86126.713144.281
87123.040140.505
88120.443137.413
89116.871133.636
90113.008129.346
91108.733125.245
92105.087120.271
93100.449114.792
9493.366107.833
9587.460102.620
9681.92296.343
9773.28386.543
9861.66677.322
9938.94065.329


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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