Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Jul48.439128.28289.6448.84454.84147.789
Jul-Aug81.077187.350140.35613.83691.22279.191
Jul-Sep106.322220.127175.31517.723117.878221.834

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10276.604305.996
20242.932259.864
30216.766230.033
40195.560202.613
50174.440179.285
60155.250155.104
70136.058133.431
80111.966110.399
9077.65682.580

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1373.476424.020
2345.034386.356
3326.852371.580
4316.050359.422
5307.338350.405
6299.871337.835
7294.312328.968
8288.194320.646
9281.728312.301
10276.604305.996
11271.893300.736
12268.909294.894
13263.427290.435
14260.590285.940
15256.788280.964
16253.794276.987
17250.284272.310
18247.852267.507
19245.599263.246
20242.932259.864
21239.752256.577
22237.037252.893
23234.687250.300
24231.430246.496
25228.582244.096
26226.322242.020
27223.969238.840
28222.156236.299
29219.660233.327
30216.766230.033
31214.311226.997
32212.043223.892
33210.145221.423
34208.481218.975
35206.484215.591
36203.554212.865
37201.290210.125
38199.607207.553
39197.722205.427
40195.560202.613
41193.130199.872
42190.751197.828
43188.675196.097
44186.700193.707
45184.700191.542
46182.726189.104
47180.736186.878
48179.019183.949
49176.833181.716
50174.440179.285
51172.613177.063
52170.993174.824
53169.083172.186
54167.412169.643
55165.189167.043
56163.314163.862
57161.303161.968
58159.605160.043
59157.563157.916
60155.250155.104
61153.224152.272
62151.485150.190
63149.919148.233
64148.395145.813
65146.801143.917
66144.182141.967
67142.237140.135
68140.201137.729
69137.909135.237
70136.058133.431
71133.815130.943
72131.162128.936
73128.963126.563
74126.761124.426
75124.708122.038
76121.848119.888
77119.069117.526
78116.475115.327
79114.537113.205
80111.966110.399
81109.221107.736
82107.035105.177
83104.387102.243
84101.37899.760
8597.82897.589
8693.93894.636
8790.17791.556
8885.94289.049
8981.99186.007
9077.65682.580
9172.94579.338
9268.28775.454
9363.33071.242
9459.07466.006
9553.25362.175
9645.33457.675
9736.07050.919
9824.82144.889
996.60937.563


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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