Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Aug32.63859.06850.7124.99236.38131.402
Aug-Sep57.88391.84585.6718.87963.037174.045
Aug-Oct74.983114.661102.45010.68691.852223.309

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10245.646242.232
20199.484183.658
30169.327152.796
40148.693128.415
50129.487110.085
60113.31492.998
7096.55479.169
8079.94865.462
9060.79349.867

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1394.404482.148
2346.267388.133
3324.538356.034
4306.878331.818
5290.771314.290
6275.326292.302
7266.296277.531
8258.200264.161
9251.373251.445
10245.646242.232
11240.503234.802
12233.595226.835
13228.489220.870
14224.030214.943
15220.308208.618
16216.168203.742
17212.049198.021
18207.734192.319
19203.876187.436
20199.484183.658
21196.004180.033
22192.852175.893
23189.082173.262
24185.968169.224
25182.730166.781
26179.483164.670
27176.836161.388
28174.346158.821
29171.718156.005
30169.327152.796
31167.322149.957
32165.068146.988
33162.477144.724
34160.392142.605
35158.245139.508
36156.254137.164
37154.417134.765
38152.534132.591
39150.697130.767
40148.693128.415
41146.618126.142
42144.419124.499
43142.823123.072
44140.707121.178
45139.003119.476
46137.275117.531
47135.430115.857
48133.209113.613
49131.216111.892
50129.487110.085
51127.829108.445
52126.049106.839
53124.135104.869
54122.843103.112
55121.331101.167
56119.66299.027
57118.44097.714
58116.86596.371
59115.16194.951
60113.31492.998
61111.72191.160
62109.94889.803
63108.31788.511
64106.67286.977
65105.34485.758
66103.57484.514
67101.47883.353
68100.00181.840
6998.63380.286
7096.55479.169
7195.03877.641
7293.41176.417
7391.77474.980
7490.09373.696
7588.21172.271
7686.21570.996
7784.95069.605
7883.51468.319
7981.43267.084
8079.94865.462
8178.40763.933
8276.31862.473
8374.10960.808
8472.57059.408
8570.94158.188
8668.70256.537
8766.77254.824
8864.96253.434
8963.04051.754
9060.79349.867
9158.27148.087
9256.04045.957
9353.35543.650
9450.68440.778
9546.95938.670
9643.85236.182
9739.60732.408
9835.64528.984
9928.61624.717


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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