Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep25.24432.77734.9593.88726.65660.411
Sep-Oct42.34455.59351.7385.69455.471166.600
Sep-Nov63.72064.45273.3886.65283.746333.200

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10160.383229.106
20124.876155.111
30104.198119.885
4088.40594.124
5075.61776.076
6065.71560.366
7055.69148.507
8044.58537.580
9033.42226.258

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1301.757608.109
2250.790446.998
3227.592395.436
4210.306357.810
5197.511331.291
6188.539298.911
7181.186277.736
8171.516258.982
9166.126241.522
10160.383229.106
11155.448219.240
12150.495208.811
13147.011201.105
14143.392193.536
15139.841185.559
16137.090179.479
17133.390172.427
18129.776165.485
19127.363159.610
20124.876155.111
21122.919150.830
22120.621145.986
23118.548142.934
24115.745138.288
25113.372135.500
26111.278133.106
27109.395129.409
28107.710126.539
29105.757123.416
30104.198119.885
31102.589116.787
32100.969113.575
3399.094111.145
3497.524108.884
3595.781105.607
3694.267103.146
3792.858100.647
3891.35798.399
3990.14096.525
4088.40594.124
4186.44191.822
4285.20490.170
4384.40588.742
4483.19386.858
4582.24585.175
4680.91483.265
4779.58781.631
4878.16279.457
4976.71877.802
5075.61776.076
5174.65574.520
5273.38473.006
5372.37971.162
5471.22269.530
5570.16167.737
5669.30165.781
5768.45464.589
5867.46663.377
5966.57062.104
6065.71560.366
6164.72958.744
6263.89757.555
6362.67056.431
6461.48855.105
6560.32254.058
6659.43352.995
6758.60352.010
6857.72650.734
6956.71849.435
7055.69148.507
7154.57047.247
7253.22646.244
7352.34145.077
7451.27344.041
7550.07742.900
7648.91941.888
7747.64340.791
7846.63539.785
7945.60038.827
8044.58537.580
8143.62636.415
8242.78635.314
8341.42534.071
8440.46933.036
8539.06932.144
8637.78130.947
8736.75729.720
8835.47828.736
8934.33927.560
9033.42226.258
9132.00025.048
9230.57023.623
9328.90022.109
9426.91120.269
9525.62518.950
9623.69517.429
9721.43615.199
9818.88913.259
9914.59310.961


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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