Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2009) (GL)
Jan381.454776.06021.2372.223429.4151136.369
Jan-Feb1142.001911.635598.58145.9391637.0666145.454
Jan-Mar1772.9351126.299876.65390.2322320.0296461.644

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106523.9257044.987
204671.7894718.195
303507.4173492.656
402740.3482581.473
502114.3031959.316
601680.8941443.524
701256.6701074.560
80875.010760.939
90508.216467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113559.36114206.509
211659.57711834.557
310339.47310916.919
49329.30610170.245
58625.4419622.740
68060.8048870.530
77645.8478349.192
87185.4727868.311
96772.2827395.352
106523.9257044.987
116270.8926757.724
126064.1706444.496
135869.3236209.762
145653.2345977.172
155396.4905724.742
165234.0195526.905
175093.0565298.911
184935.6205070.236
194790.5664872.122
204671.7894718.195
214538.7844571.366
224369.1144410.191
234231.5204298.948
244113.6234139.001
254002.1524040.132
263889.3913955.865
273811.1473829.107
283712.1943729.823
293616.5703615.976
303507.4173492.656
313404.7583381.672
323347.0593270.765
333284.0543184.504
343207.0133100.621
353130.7652987.356
363041.7722898.376
372938.4932810.960
382860.3692730.700
392788.7912665.686
402740.3482581.473
412651.5032501.402
422573.7542442.943
432506.8342394.258
442450.0042328.245
452386.1772269.707
462341.7032205.132
472282.1452147.409
482221.6682073.279
492165.1982018.088
502114.3031959.316
512055.2251906.765
522002.4981854.928
531952.5581795.245
541917.6041739.130
551877.3841683.145
561839.1461616.556
571804.2671577.866
581770.5241539.267
591725.6611497.473
601680.8941443.524
611635.7041390.703
621597.2891352.781
631554.5441317.847
641502.9741275.584
651461.2341243.167
661426.9481210.462
671388.5021180.306
681344.0711141.538
691305.9421102.357
701256.6701074.560
711210.7871037.090
721161.9251007.521
731131.503973.330
741092.566943.229
751051.517910.353
761020.123881.420
77980.325850.349
78947.193822.075
79913.144795.374
80875.010760.939
81839.094729.138
82804.672699.387
83773.837666.198
84733.037638.877
85698.941615.539
86657.574584.617
87618.252553.330
88582.417528.578
89544.276499.382
90508.216467.569
91470.499438.481
92424.786404.891
93372.443369.975
94324.455328.675
95282.224299.887
96231.451267.582
97169.988222.046
9889.919184.342
9911.205142.210


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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