Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Mar630.934214.664278.07252.619682.9633475.607
Mar-Apr850.489401.1821357.96473.565944.6233938.686
Mar-May970.536526.0461521.06796.0601062.3834339.006

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103756.272
202591.897
301980.211
401517.724
501193.249
60915.110
70708.431
80525.252
90344.336

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17508.372
26240.967
35755.915
45363.994
55078.378
64688.607
74420.361
84174.345
93933.704
103756.272
113611.299
123453.714
133335.931
143219.465
153093.305
162994.582
172880.946
182767.080
192668.486
202591.897
212518.834
222438.609
232383.211
242303.503
252254.191
262212.130
272148.796
282099.128
292042.096
301980.211
311924.408
321868.527
331824.976
341782.544
351725.109
361679.868
371635.307
381594.288
391560.980
401517.724
411476.469
421446.267
431421.058
441386.793
451356.323
461322.612
471292.387
481253.438
491224.337
501193.249
511165.359
521137.760
531105.870
541075.769
551045.620
561009.600
57988.587
58967.559
59944.716
60915.110
61885.986
62864.990
63845.580
64822.011
65803.863
66785.491
67768.495
68746.560
69724.292
70708.431
71686.965
72669.952
73650.198
74632.731
75613.568
76596.627
77578.352
78561.645
79545.796
80525.252
81506.168
82488.214
83468.064
84451.375
85437.045
86417.943
87398.479
88382.976
89364.564
90344.336
91325.680
92303.929
93281.062
94253.636
95234.249
96212.195
97180.487
98153.576
99122.612


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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