Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun73.66196.297152.28316.62369.367324.060
Jun-Jul123.104185.940234.66625.467130.696389.473
Jun-Aug156.173236.652300.54130.459170.284426.455

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10392.728442.039
20334.356362.492
30299.195316.883
40269.080278.293
50241.390247.529
60217.312217.190
70193.021190.906
80168.006163.337
90132.438129.346

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1575.410712.143
2512.085613.723
3481.440578.500
4463.019550.837
5446.514531.057
6431.454504.483
7420.239486.411
8408.873469.939
9398.496453.878
10392.728442.039
11386.217432.350
12377.168421.787
13369.700413.859
14364.128405.984
15359.069397.401
16353.620390.639
17347.446382.797
18343.759374.866
19338.710367.930
20334.356362.492
21329.647357.260
22326.396351.459
23323.122347.416
24319.465341.542
25315.463337.872
26312.164334.718
27308.109329.925
28304.722326.127
29301.909321.721
30299.195316.883
31295.809312.464
32292.247307.983
33288.968304.450
34286.367300.970
35283.496296.197
36280.492292.385
37277.793288.582
38274.790285.036
39271.908282.123
40269.080278.293
41266.274274.588
42263.285271.843
43260.858269.528
44257.152266.347
45254.105263.483
46251.308260.274
47248.718257.359
48246.106253.548
49243.585250.658
50241.390247.529
51239.230244.682
52236.805241.828
53234.000238.481
54231.200235.270
55228.797232.003
56226.468228.028
57224.634225.671
58221.737223.283
59219.739220.654
60217.312217.190
61215.433213.718
62213.069211.173
63210.875208.787
64208.204205.846
65206.144203.546
66203.554201.186
67201.144198.973
68198.726196.073
69196.074193.075
70193.021190.906
71190.924187.922
72188.852185.516
73186.229182.675
74183.580180.119
75180.958177.264
76178.474174.694
77175.822171.870
78173.163169.239
79170.727166.699
80168.006163.337
81165.150160.139
82162.120157.061
83158.992153.522
84154.704150.517
85151.351147.881
86147.181144.281
87144.137140.505
88140.285137.413
89136.563133.636
90132.438129.346
91128.491125.245
92123.931120.271
93118.966114.792
94111.464107.833
95106.202102.620
9698.77996.343
9788.56986.543
9876.34077.322
9953.94265.329


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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