Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1991) (GL)
Jan343.827504.3911136.3692.223153.5132269.843
Jan-Feb990.6651566.9156145.45445.9391086.6535913.372
Jan-Mar1593.9842630.5036461.64490.2321651.6226254.886

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105552.8343835.426
204021.3932568.676
303194.5811901.469
402516.2071405.403
501981.9521066.689
601560.438785.882
701216.715585.011
80887.978414.270
90544.202254.553

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111248.5927734.295
29242.1996442.959
38202.4215943.379
47398.8645536.876
56964.0375238.804
66619.6824829.286
76263.5424545.460
85987.7734283.659
95725.1154026.171
105552.8343835.426
115322.7163679.034
125113.5223508.507
134942.8693380.713
144782.3683254.087
154640.1353116.659
164486.4243008.953
174374.1652884.828
184262.8392760.333
194157.9732652.476
204021.3932568.676
213933.4512488.739
223822.0792400.992
233729.5922340.429
243667.4262253.351
253581.4982199.525
263505.6422153.649
273420.3272084.639
283344.7632030.587
293264.4201968.607
303194.5811901.469
313133.5211841.047
323049.4811780.667
332994.7631733.705
342919.8291688.037
352846.1011626.374
362774.9971577.931
372714.9741530.340
382655.9821486.645
392583.7831451.251
402516.2071405.403
412454.2911361.811
422387.9111329.985
432321.7951303.480
442256.2201267.541
452213.0191235.672
462175.2751200.516
472128.2751169.091
482086.1831128.733
492040.0741098.685
501981.9521066.689
511937.6411038.079
521889.5581009.858
531841.313977.366
541793.571946.816
551760.616916.336
561722.886880.084
571681.583859.020
581639.569838.007
591605.884815.253
601560.438785.882
611526.457757.125
621498.906736.480
631461.444717.461
641423.413694.452
651393.381676.804
661353.385658.998
671325.502642.581
681288.697621.475
691254.040600.144
701216.715585.011
711185.263564.612
721152.119548.514
731123.196529.900
741085.951513.512
751060.755495.614
761026.364479.862
77990.908462.946
78959.224447.553
79923.294433.017
80887.978414.270
81845.753396.957
82814.538380.760
83778.742362.691
84742.041347.817
85708.244335.111
86670.513318.277
87639.465301.243
88602.838287.768
89575.564271.873
90544.202254.553
91509.047238.718
92471.299220.431
93417.788201.421
94376.449178.937
95331.973163.264
96286.290145.677
97222.900120.886
98167.263100.359
9992.24477.422


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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