Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1991) (GL)
Jan343.827504.3911136.3692.223153.5132269.843
Jan-Feb990.6651566.9156145.45445.9391086.6535913.372
Jan-Mar1593.9842630.5036461.64490.2321651.6226254.886

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109834.3117044.987
207133.8954718.195
305639.3543492.656
404402.8972581.473
503467.8611959.316
602722.7611443.524
702111.8651074.560
801535.110760.939
90932.939467.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120091.54114206.509
216294.75811834.557
314689.61710916.919
413116.47610170.245
512403.7439622.740
611749.9858870.530
711197.4888349.192
810670.2307868.311
910218.5947395.352
109834.3117044.987
119438.2356757.724
129049.2476444.496
138709.9276209.762
148493.9525977.172
158214.0295724.742
167988.3805526.905
177730.1225298.911
187543.5195070.236
197315.9954872.122
207133.8954718.195
216963.5014571.366
226754.4134410.191
236622.7134298.948
246472.2134139.001
256333.4284040.132
266212.0463955.865
276049.0683829.107
285861.0193729.823
295740.2293615.976
305639.3543492.656
315493.5923381.672
325357.2993270.765
335244.7523184.504
345129.1433100.621
354998.5682987.356
364872.6132898.376
374778.3162810.960
384665.6482730.700
394528.4392665.686
404402.8972581.473
414295.8712501.402
424175.2632442.943
434066.7882394.258
443973.6122328.245
453869.8832269.707
463792.4092205.132
473714.9112147.409
483634.1592073.279
493545.0872018.088
503467.8611959.316
513364.7011906.765
523273.6121854.928
533191.3101795.245
543145.6251739.130
553064.4421683.145
563007.5411616.556
572936.8781577.866
582866.1431539.267
592782.6921497.473
602722.7611443.524
612659.3291390.703
622604.8211352.781
632534.2241317.847
642468.1451275.584
652401.0981243.167
662347.2691210.462
672291.2891180.306
682236.7401141.538
692169.0481102.357
702111.8651074.560
712058.4021037.090
721992.3321007.521
731938.454973.330
741888.534943.229
751824.197910.353
761772.197881.420
771711.765850.349
781651.546822.075
791586.720795.374
801535.110760.939
811473.095729.138
821405.038699.387
831348.457666.198
841279.931638.877
851223.143615.539
861155.354584.617
871094.730553.330
881042.187528.578
89986.197499.382
90932.939467.569
91876.921438.481
92802.858404.891
93717.516369.975
94640.928328.675
95566.115299.887
96474.782267.582
97378.137222.046
98274.736184.342
99145.268142.210


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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