Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (2009) (GL)
Jan363.6411136.369199.9472.223242.3241136.369
Jan-Feb1122.3316145.454996.67145.9391479.5056145.454
Jan-Mar1718.2876461.6441322.72590.2321970.5286461.644

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102443.5303835.426
201623.2092568.676
301206.5111901.469
40909.5121405.403
50696.9551066.689
60527.344785.882
70380.470585.011
80246.888414.270
90120.981254.553

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15636.7267734.295
24638.8916442.959
33992.0425943.379
43584.9125536.876
53282.4975238.804
63056.7414829.286
72877.7394545.460
82734.9894283.659
92592.7564026.171
102443.5303835.426
112304.2493679.034
122207.2153508.507
132110.4783380.713
142020.2973254.087
151940.6543116.659
161886.5853008.953
171819.1272884.828
181754.2872760.333
191681.8122652.476
201623.2092568.676
211563.9472488.739
221514.7482400.992
231463.3952340.429
241416.8732253.351
251379.9232199.525
261344.3222153.649
271314.6372084.639
281279.2702030.587
291241.0221968.607
301206.5111901.469
311169.2341841.047
321134.4391780.667
331104.8741733.705
341066.7971688.037
351032.3291626.374
361007.9321577.931
37979.9911530.340
38953.9901486.645
39933.8341451.251
40909.5121405.403
41885.4541361.811
42859.3611329.985
43830.5701303.480
44812.5491267.541
45790.1011235.672
46767.0351200.516
47749.6781169.091
48730.8621128.733
49714.8161098.685
50696.9551066.689
51679.0061038.079
52665.2031009.858
53650.051977.366
54633.167946.816
55616.181916.336
56601.130880.084
57583.171859.020
58565.092838.007
59547.080815.253
60527.344785.882
61510.759757.125
62493.433736.480
63475.990717.461
64462.639694.452
65446.115676.804
66431.846658.998
67421.996642.581
68405.887621.475
69393.356600.144
70380.470585.011
71365.968564.612
72348.935548.514
73334.019529.900
74321.793513.512
75310.590495.614
76301.314479.862
77287.695462.946
78272.464447.553
79258.589433.017
80246.888414.270
81234.051396.957
82222.325380.760
83206.713362.691
84192.722347.817
85183.203335.111
86171.850318.277
87161.134301.243
88150.403287.768
89136.851271.873
90120.981254.553
91105.305238.718
9291.139220.431
9374.137201.421
9457.592178.937
9541.002163.264
9625.687145.677
974.782120.886
980.000100.359
990.00077.422


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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