Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie


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Product list for Herbert River at Abergowrie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Herbert River at Abergowrie ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (2009) (GL)
Jan359.648199.947996.9142.223252.6861136.369
Jan-Feb1119.290996.6712842.25445.9391354.1166145.454
Jan-Mar1708.4981322.7255401.10290.2321738.4466461.644

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107360.5583835.426
205547.2782568.676
304444.2511901.469
403621.1821405.403
502923.9831066.689
602363.300785.882
701844.376585.011
801365.303414.270
90856.754254.553

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114686.8317734.295
212097.3546442.959
310813.0795943.379
49874.1585536.876
59219.1125238.804
68686.3964829.286
78281.5424545.460
87897.6774283.659
97604.9094026.171
107360.5583835.426
117120.6403679.034
126897.1453508.507
136714.0273380.713
146531.3473254.087
156339.2263116.659
166128.3043008.953
175991.5322884.828
185808.6072760.333
195664.3562652.476
205547.2782568.676
215401.8192488.739
225280.8092400.992
235171.3902340.429
245072.6452253.351
254955.2782199.525
264829.8672153.649
274723.7412084.639
284617.0482030.587
294535.2211968.607
304444.2511901.469
314377.8481841.047
324310.3391780.667
334195.7801733.705
344096.8851688.037
354008.4621626.374
363940.7801577.931
373872.0801530.340
383797.4691486.645
393703.6951451.251
403621.1821405.403
413555.4321361.811
423488.8081329.985
433408.6551303.480
443353.1831267.541
453274.9331235.672
463210.7831200.516
473131.3971169.091
483078.6781128.733
492998.6541098.685
502923.9831066.689
512860.3321038.079
522784.9001009.858
532731.640977.366
542675.854946.816
552611.302916.336
562575.318880.084
572519.950859.020
582464.046838.007
592412.071815.253
602363.300785.882
612309.167757.125
622260.363736.480
632220.129717.461
642166.114694.452
652113.692676.804
662061.426658.998
672014.621642.581
681968.109621.475
691908.386600.144
701844.376585.011
711795.150564.612
721753.948548.514
731705.687529.900
741656.995513.512
751600.790495.614
761552.154479.862
771503.125462.946
781460.077447.553
791420.414433.017
801365.303414.270
811310.987396.957
821255.939380.760
831205.232362.691
841162.064347.817
851106.663335.111
861060.024318.277
871011.032301.243
88959.937287.768
89909.669271.873
90856.754254.553
91800.310238.718
92743.699220.431
93689.703201.421
94630.306178.937
95561.639163.264
96478.678145.677
97382.918120.886
98307.454100.359
99207.77077.422


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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