Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.52316.208
208.80810.782
307.2948.243
406.1386.402
505.2415.127
604.4714.031
703.7503.204
803.0252.455
902.2511.689

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.92045.229
218.50232.640
316.48728.713
415.14025.835
514.28723.886
613.56221.410
712.89819.816
812.32118.427
911.92817.129
1011.52316.208
1111.14915.477
1210.86314.702
1310.55614.136
1410.18013.587
159.86613.003
169.66412.553
179.44112.044
189.21411.541
199.01611.112
208.80810.782
218.65810.470
228.49310.131
238.3579.898
248.1579.566
257.9819.361
267.8459.188
277.7288.928
287.5748.725
297.4298.493
307.2948.243
317.1668.018
327.0597.794
336.8907.620
346.7697.450
356.6607.222
366.5667.042
376.4456.866
386.3486.704
396.2396.572
406.1386.402
416.0386.240
425.9336.121
435.8326.022
445.7585.887
455.6495.767
465.5565.635
475.4625.516
485.3895.364
495.3195.249
505.2415.127
515.1605.018
525.0854.909
535.0104.784
544.9194.665
554.8424.547
564.7764.405
574.6894.322
584.6114.239
594.5464.148
604.4714.031
614.4063.915
624.3563.832
634.2943.754
644.2183.660
654.1383.588
664.0733.514
674.0113.446
683.9273.358
693.8393.268
703.7503.204
713.6743.117
723.5893.048
733.5322.968
743.4472.897
753.3742.819
763.3012.749
773.2322.674
783.1662.605
793.0882.540
803.0252.455
812.9492.376
822.8692.301
832.7842.216
842.7122.146
852.6512.086
862.5782.005
872.4971.922
882.4111.855
892.3181.776
902.2511.689
912.1781.608
922.0641.512
931.9571.411
941.8561.289
951.7401.201
961.6051.101
971.4790.954
981.2790.828
991.0330.678


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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