Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.16714.689
2017.08212.483
3015.72511.153
4014.5819.983
5013.5569.017
6012.6118.032
7011.6207.148
8010.5076.186
908.9504.944

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.78421.402
223.96419.070
322.49818.207
421.73417.517
521.23917.017
620.66116.336
720.18815.866
819.79215.433
919.51615.006
1019.16714.689
1118.94714.427
1218.70014.139
1318.44913.922
1418.24113.705
1518.05113.467
1617.79113.279
1717.61113.059
1817.41212.835
1917.21312.638
2017.08212.483
2116.93512.333
2216.76512.166
2316.64912.049
2416.47011.878
2516.34811.771
2616.18811.679
2716.07111.538
2815.94811.426
2915.83411.296
3015.72511.153
3115.60011.021
3215.46410.887
3315.36410.780
3415.23710.676
3515.11210.531
3614.99010.415
3714.89310.299
3814.78310.191
3914.67110.101
4014.5819.983
4114.4619.868
4214.3549.783
4314.2489.711
4414.1629.612
4514.0469.522
4613.9419.421
4713.8399.329
4813.7439.209
4913.6479.117
5013.5569.017
5113.4628.926
5213.3768.835
5313.2528.727
5413.1608.623
5513.0758.517
5612.9928.388
5712.8978.311
5812.8098.233
5912.6828.146
6012.6118.032
6112.5057.917
6212.4277.832
6312.3307.753
6412.2507.654
6512.1567.577
6612.0177.497
6711.9317.423
6811.8497.324
6911.7317.222
7011.6207.148
7111.5227.046
7211.4106.963
7311.3026.865
7411.2006.776
7511.0676.677
7610.9626.587
7710.8466.488
7810.7166.396
7910.6096.306
8010.5076.186
8110.3706.072
8210.2265.962
8310.1055.835
849.9635.726
859.7965.630
869.6595.498
879.4925.359
889.3135.245
899.1135.105
908.9504.944
918.7584.789
928.5474.600
938.3234.389
948.1014.119
957.8233.914
967.4933.664
977.1293.268
986.5912.886
995.8882.378


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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