Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.71853.981
2036.55041.271
3031.33933.936
4027.00627.896
5023.53823.303
6020.33919.054
7017.51215.653
8014.27612.410
9010.3868.916

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
169.49491.069
261.82078.796
357.18374.063
453.82570.214
551.73967.391
649.48963.505
748.19460.803
846.85758.300
945.73255.825
1044.71853.981
1143.50552.460
1242.71150.790
1341.59149.530
1440.73848.274
1539.95046.899
1639.36045.812
1738.60444.550
1837.92543.270
1937.23742.150
2036.55041.271
2135.89740.426
2235.33539.489
2334.85238.836
2434.31737.889
2533.79437.298
2633.25736.791
2732.78336.021
2832.20535.412
2931.79534.708
3031.33933.936
3130.96333.233
3230.40632.523
3329.96931.965
3429.40331.417
3529.00530.668
3628.62030.073
3728.27629.482
3827.85928.933
3927.44728.484
4027.00627.896
4126.65827.331
4226.32526.913
4325.92526.563
4425.58426.084
4525.26825.654
4624.95725.176
4724.50824.744
4824.23924.182
4923.89323.759
5023.53823.303
5123.25322.891
5222.98322.481
5322.58022.003
5422.25021.548
5521.95721.089
5621.60220.535
5721.30120.209
5820.97019.881
5920.67719.522
6020.33919.054
6120.07318.589
6219.85618.250
6319.62317.936
6419.32317.551
6519.01817.253
6618.67016.949
6718.36916.666
6818.13716.299
6917.79415.923
7017.51215.653
7117.15115.285
7216.87414.992
7316.56914.648
7416.27414.342
7515.95214.004
7615.65213.703
7715.29813.376
7814.98613.075
7914.65912.787
8014.27612.410
8113.90512.057
8213.58411.722
8313.24311.342
8412.89511.025
8512.53510.750
8612.22310.380
8711.7679.999
8811.2619.693
8910.8659.325
9010.3868.916
919.8738.533
929.5588.081
939.1337.598
948.5647.007
957.9136.581
967.3066.086
976.5875.355
985.7534.712
994.6153.942


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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