Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1034.57431.556
2030.61225.535
3027.85321.988
4025.61018.980
5023.40116.606
6021.44314.311
7019.50612.381
8017.12310.435
9014.2498.174

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
145.00249.215
242.00443.312
340.44641.054
439.07539.224
537.89737.885
636.80836.047
736.19534.772
835.64933.592
935.09032.425
1034.57431.556
1134.01830.839
1233.55130.051
1333.17329.456
1432.78528.862
1532.35828.212
1632.02527.697
1731.62027.097
1831.27726.489
1930.91725.955
2030.61225.535
2130.25325.130
2230.01724.681
2329.73824.367
2429.44223.911
2529.19623.625
2628.93523.379
2728.62523.006
2828.32722.710
2928.08122.366
3027.85321.988
3127.63421.643
3227.33921.294
3327.06821.018
3426.85520.746
3526.61920.374
3626.36020.077
3726.17419.780
3826.01519.504
3925.81919.278
4025.61018.980
4125.38118.692
4225.15118.479
4324.93618.300
4424.72918.054
4524.47417.833
4624.23217.585
4724.02017.360
4823.80317.067
4923.58916.845
5023.40116.606
5123.20216.388
5222.95216.170
5322.76315.915
5422.52215.672
5522.34815.424
5622.10615.124
5721.91614.947
5821.74514.767
5921.61714.570
6021.44314.311
6121.27614.053
6221.09113.864
6320.88013.688
6420.70213.471
6520.50913.302
6620.30513.129
6720.15312.967
6819.95712.756
6919.71112.538
7019.50612.381
7119.30012.166
7219.09711.994
7318.85211.791
7418.62211.609
7518.35711.407
7618.11911.226
7717.82111.028
7817.59810.844
7917.37710.667
8017.12310.435
8116.89010.215
8216.65510.005
8316.3919.765
8416.0759.562
8515.7819.386
8615.4929.147
8715.1978.897
8814.8758.695
8914.5728.450
9014.2498.174
9113.9017.914
9213.4017.602
9313.0237.262
9412.5216.839
9511.9946.528
9611.2636.161
9710.6765.602
989.7665.094
998.4854.461


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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