Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1051.50255.541
2035.12432.531
3025.37722.400
4018.18015.671
5013.46911.411
609.9518.071
706.9315.813
804.4483.961
902.4002.311

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.314151.921
284.814117.360
376.575104.353
469.29394.186
565.53786.676
661.49777.141
758.73970.712
856.16864.914
953.66459.451
1051.50255.541
1149.32252.427
1247.22049.137
1344.95146.711
1443.33144.337
1541.71641.846
1640.32939.958
1738.79537.784
1837.24835.662
1936.14333.882
2035.12432.531
2133.99331.256
2232.51229.825
2331.36128.931
2430.44727.583
2529.67626.781
2628.84526.096
2727.90125.049
2827.17824.243
2926.19823.373
3025.37722.400
3124.15721.556
3223.32920.690
3322.52920.041
3421.86619.443
3520.90618.585
3620.30317.948
3719.72017.308
3819.18816.739
3918.66716.268
4018.18015.671
4117.63115.105
4217.03814.702
4316.58814.357
4416.20613.905
4515.70413.506
4615.25213.057
4714.78412.677
4814.36612.176
4913.89611.799
5013.46911.411
5113.02011.064
5212.67510.729
5312.26410.326
5411.9819.974
5511.6079.592
5611.2409.180
5710.9848.932
5810.6318.682
5910.3128.422
609.9518.071
619.6127.748
629.2537.514
638.9927.295
648.6357.039
658.2746.840
668.0056.639
677.7476.454
687.4626.218
697.1855.981
706.9315.813
716.6655.588
726.4275.410
736.1935.207
745.9385.028
755.7304.833
765.4954.663
775.2254.481
784.9684.316
794.7114.161
804.4483.961
814.2543.778
824.0513.608
833.8593.419
843.6383.264
853.4583.132
863.2052.958
872.9752.784
882.7412.646
892.5392.485
902.4002.311
912.2312.153
922.0521.971
931.8091.784
941.5831.566
951.3471.415
961.1181.248
970.8591.015
980.6110.827
990.2660.621


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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