Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10108.658
2079.263
3062.745
4049.581
5039.933
6031.357
7024.780
8018.785
9012.680

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1195.430
2166.769
3155.691
4146.674
5140.056
6130.946
7124.614
8118.754
9112.966
10108.658
11105.110
12101.223
1398.295
1495.379
1592.196
1689.686
1786.777
1883.837
1981.271
2079.263
2177.337
2275.208
2373.729
2471.589
2570.257
2669.116
2767.390
2866.029
2964.459
3062.745
3161.190
3259.624
3358.397
3457.197
3555.564
3654.270
3752.989
3851.805
3950.840
4049.581
4148.374
4247.487
4346.744
4445.732
4544.827
4643.823
4742.920
4841.751
4940.874
5039.933
5139.087
5238.246
5337.271
5436.347
5535.419
5634.304
5733.652
5832.997
5932.284
6031.357
6130.441
6229.779
6329.165
6428.417
6527.840
6627.254
6726.711
6826.007
6925.291
7024.780
7124.086
7223.534
7322.892
7422.323
7521.696
7621.141
7720.540
7819.990
7919.466
8018.785
8118.150
8217.551
8316.877
8416.317
8515.834
8615.189
8714.529
8814.002
8913.374
9012.680
9112.038
9211.286
9310.491
949.532
958.849
968.068
976.935
985.963
994.830


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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