Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


Return to catchment list
Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


  • Jan

Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10158.863183.031
20125.146128.392
30101.48297.442
4081.69673.173
5064.82755.975
6050.68741.383
7037.53130.807
8025.54921.765
9013.94413.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1253.288337.291
2224.260287.204
3212.046267.671
4199.590251.678
5189.815239.879
6182.218223.542
7175.578212.115
8169.334201.483
9163.611190.925
10158.863183.031
11154.620176.505
12150.155169.331
13147.532163.910
14143.574158.499
15139.760152.577
16136.977147.899
17134.119142.464
18130.713136.964
19128.068132.156
20125.146128.392
21122.287124.778
22119.321120.783
23117.028118.008
24114.308113.993
25112.184111.496
26109.892109.357
27107.980106.124
28105.960103.578
29103.893100.642
30101.48297.442
3198.96494.546
3296.91491.635
3395.15789.360
3493.09487.138
3590.86284.122
3689.11081.741
3787.27179.391
3885.11877.224
3983.40875.463
4081.69673.173
4179.52970.987
4277.54169.386
4375.89468.049
4474.04466.232
4572.18464.615
4670.80162.827
4769.36361.225
4867.99459.161
4966.50857.620
5064.82755.975
5163.49554.501
5261.98653.044
5360.46751.363
5459.24049.779
5557.51648.195
5656.25646.307
5755.07045.209
5853.65744.111
5952.04242.921
6050.68741.383
6149.46339.875
6248.08338.791
6346.76537.791
6445.73936.581
6544.41335.651
6643.00034.713
6741.53333.847
6840.43832.733
6939.05431.607
7037.53130.807
7136.28929.729
7235.08928.877
7333.86027.892
7432.68827.025
7531.68626.077
7630.67025.242
7729.52824.346
7828.23023.530
7926.63622.759
8025.54921.765
8124.44520.847
8223.43819.989
8322.33119.030
8420.87318.242
8519.82717.568
8618.64216.676
8717.74615.774
8816.81515.060
8915.42414.218
9013.94413.301
9112.64712.464
9211.67811.497
9310.30910.493
949.1309.306
957.8388.481
966.5667.555
974.9876.253
983.2975.177
991.5243.979


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence