Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1049.66231.556
2044.59125.535
3041.41921.988
4038.43418.980
5035.85716.606
6033.45614.311
7031.04812.381
8028.13410.435
9024.1458.174

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
166.03349.215
260.74643.312
357.61141.054
456.28439.224
554.75537.885
653.43636.047
752.54534.772
851.41333.592
950.36132.425
1049.66231.556
1149.02630.839
1248.35630.051
1347.89129.456
1447.35228.862
1546.90728.212
1646.41827.697
1745.91627.097
1845.41026.489
1945.02425.955
2044.59125.535
2144.20625.130
2243.89124.681
2343.53824.367
2443.18723.911
2542.80023.625
2642.50023.379
2742.22623.006
2841.95922.710
2941.66722.366
3041.41921.988
3141.06621.643
3240.73321.294
3340.45021.018
3440.18620.746
3539.93220.374
3639.59420.077
3739.29919.780
3838.96519.504
3938.70819.278
4038.43418.980
4138.06418.692
4237.77318.479
4337.52518.300
4437.26818.054
4537.07317.833
4636.83417.585
4736.54917.360
4836.33917.067
4936.07616.845
5035.85716.606
5135.63316.388
5235.38316.170
5335.14015.915
5434.89215.672
5534.64315.424
5634.38915.124
5734.14014.947
5833.89814.767
5933.65714.570
6033.45614.311
6133.19314.053
6232.94313.864
6332.72713.688
6432.46213.471
6532.20313.302
6632.02813.129
6731.75812.967
6831.53612.756
6931.27712.538
7031.04812.381
7130.74012.166
7230.51911.994
7330.21511.791
7429.91411.609
7529.65911.407
7629.37511.226
7729.06911.028
7828.75310.844
7928.41610.667
8028.13410.435
8127.80010.215
8227.42310.005
8327.0789.765
8426.7179.562
8526.3189.386
8625.8599.147
8725.4328.897
8825.0048.695
8924.6488.450
9024.1458.174
9123.6127.914
9223.0007.602
9322.3477.262
9421.5646.839
9520.6406.528
9619.8446.161
9718.9415.602
9817.6535.094
9915.8054.461


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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