Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10199.211183.031
20161.951128.392
30137.20397.442
40115.24473.173
5096.00455.975
6078.53541.383
7061.45430.807
8044.00021.765
9026.07813.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1292.475337.291
2264.888287.204
3251.947267.671
4240.952251.678
5228.627239.879
6221.001223.542
7214.469212.115
8208.707201.483
9203.267190.925
10199.211183.031
11194.390176.505
12189.378169.331
13185.627163.910
14181.136158.499
15178.474152.577
16175.538147.899
17172.242142.464
18168.926136.964
19165.696132.156
20161.951128.392
21159.561124.778
22156.687120.783
23154.072118.008
24151.355113.993
25148.699111.496
26146.640109.357
27144.209106.124
28141.730103.578
29139.568100.642
30137.20397.442
31134.81294.546
32132.54391.635
33130.28889.360
34128.50487.138
35126.57884.122
36124.34281.741
37121.78779.391
38119.67877.224
39117.49375.463
40115.24473.173
41113.64170.987
42112.21069.386
43109.99868.049
44108.18466.232
45105.96064.615
46103.68962.827
47101.45861.225
4899.55159.161
4998.06857.620
5096.00455.975
5194.32354.501
5292.29653.044
5390.87851.363
5489.24949.779
5587.89448.195
5686.01446.307
5784.07145.209
5882.05044.111
5980.50942.921
6078.53541.383
6176.76639.875
6274.91538.791
6373.28637.791
6471.70236.581
6570.01135.651
6668.51934.713
6766.83033.847
6865.22232.733
6963.14931.607
7061.45430.807
7159.22829.729
7257.79128.877
7356.01627.892
7454.24427.025
7552.74626.077
7651.29725.242
7749.69124.346
7847.86923.530
7945.92022.759
8044.00021.765
8142.23820.847
8240.34619.989
8338.62619.030
8436.84418.242
8535.27517.568
8633.51916.676
8731.54815.774
8829.87115.060
8928.01314.218
9026.07813.301
9124.24912.464
9221.87511.497
9319.29110.493
9417.2469.306
9515.2828.481
9612.9427.555
9710.7956.253
987.5995.177
995.0693.979


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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