Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.2863.265
Median7.0435.014
Mean7.6176.196
75% Quartile9.3137.723
Interquartile Range4.0274.458

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.29323.909
216.06718.919
315.07617.257
414.32215.997
513.66115.122
613.26413.980
712.79513.225
812.52812.553
912.21111.912
1011.95211.449
1111.69511.076
1211.43010.676
1311.17310.379
1411.00810.088
1510.8169.775
1610.6399.532
1710.4659.253
1810.2698.974
1910.0828.733
209.9468.546
219.8168.368
229.6888.173
239.5498.038
249.4287.843
259.3157.723
269.1927.620
279.0847.464
288.9747.342
298.8607.202
308.7617.049
318.6636.910
328.5336.771
338.4356.662
348.3516.556
358.2586.411
368.1656.296
378.0606.183
387.9726.078
397.9125.992
407.8445.880
417.7415.773
427.6485.694
437.5895.627
447.5245.537
457.4335.456
467.3575.366
477.2915.284
487.1995.179
497.1255.100
507.0435.014
516.9704.937
526.8664.860
536.8004.771
546.7354.686
556.6634.600
566.6074.496
576.5344.436
586.4734.374
596.3864.307
606.2974.219
616.2464.132
626.1784.069
636.1064.010
646.0343.937
655.9663.881
665.9033.824
675.8313.771
685.7623.701
695.7083.630
705.6433.579
715.5843.509
725.5183.453
735.4443.388
745.3593.329
755.2853.264
765.2143.207
775.1453.144
785.0793.085
794.9843.030
804.9172.956
814.8462.887
824.7842.822
834.7132.747
844.6272.685
854.5532.630
864.4652.556
874.3682.480
884.2632.418
894.1582.344
904.0322.260
913.9282.182
923.8192.088
933.6891.987
943.5591.862
953.4271.771
963.2451.663
973.0271.501
982.7531.355
992.4421.175


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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