Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.9964.700
Median8.9266.651
Mean9.3217.297
75% Quartile11.1749.157
Interquartile Range4.1774.457

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.87619.516
217.09516.795
316.22215.820
415.72315.055
515.23214.508
614.79713.772
714.45413.272
814.18112.816
913.83912.371
1013.57212.043
1113.34911.775
1213.09511.482
1312.91811.263
1412.72911.045
1512.53910.807
1612.33710.620
1712.17910.402
1812.05310.182
1911.8759.990
2011.7519.840
2111.6659.695
2211.5459.534
2311.4119.422
2411.2889.259
2511.1759.157
2611.0769.070
2710.9508.937
2810.8568.831
2910.7528.709
3010.6538.575
3110.5718.453
3210.4778.328
3310.3758.230
3410.2958.134
3510.1958.001
3610.1027.896
3710.0157.790
389.9167.692
399.8137.611
409.7387.505
419.6547.402
429.5687.326
439.4757.262
449.3937.173
459.3087.094
469.2217.005
479.1556.924
489.0856.818
498.9956.738
508.9266.651
518.8616.572
528.7626.493
538.6636.400
548.5806.311
558.4826.220
568.4266.110
578.3696.044
588.2965.978
598.2325.905
608.1665.809
618.0795.712
628.0135.642
637.9525.575
647.8785.494
657.7915.430
667.7115.364
677.6495.303
687.5575.222
697.4865.139
707.4065.079
717.3144.996
727.2294.929
737.1554.850
747.0804.779
756.9954.700
766.9174.628
776.8344.550
786.7414.477
796.6604.406
806.5704.313
816.4834.224
826.3974.138
836.3144.040
846.2123.956
856.1233.883
866.0183.783
875.8883.678
885.7773.592
895.6623.487
905.5253.367
915.3953.253
925.2663.115
935.1162.963
944.9422.769
954.7572.624
964.5862.449
974.3172.176
984.0141.919
993.5991.585


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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