Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.6288.582
Median14.32011.799
Mean14.85912.664
75% Quartile17.63115.764
Interquartile Range6.0037.182

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.90430.905
226.27327.075
324.88425.683
423.74124.579
523.24023.786
622.53522.712
722.00321.977
821.54821.303
921.18520.643
1020.79720.155
1120.46619.753
1220.16919.314
1319.95718.983
1419.75418.654
1519.57118.294
1619.29218.010
1719.07017.679
1818.85917.343
1918.65417.049
2018.44316.818
2118.29716.595
2218.10816.347
2317.96516.174
2417.77715.922
2517.63215.764
2617.47915.629
2717.31815.422
2817.16115.258
2916.99715.067
3016.83114.858
3116.63114.666
3216.48714.471
3316.35714.317
3416.23714.165
3516.12513.956
3615.98613.789
3715.83813.622
3815.68813.466
3915.58313.338
4015.49613.169
4115.39213.005
4215.29612.883
4315.17512.781
4415.06912.639
4514.96112.512
4614.82112.369
4714.70312.239
4814.54712.069
4914.43311.939
5014.32011.799
5114.21211.671
5214.11111.543
5313.98411.392
5413.89411.247
5513.80411.100
5613.71210.919
5713.57610.813
5813.45410.704
5913.34410.584
6013.20510.426
6113.09010.268
6213.00810.151
6312.90210.042
6412.8129.907
6512.7169.801
6612.6269.692
6712.5459.590
6812.4419.456
6912.3429.318
7012.2489.217
7112.1459.079
7212.0118.967
7311.8878.834
7411.7528.715
7511.6288.582
7611.4848.461
7711.3658.329
7811.2388.205
7911.0958.085
8010.9777.927
8110.8267.775
8210.6687.629
8310.5297.461
8410.3717.318
8510.2257.192
8610.0857.019
879.9126.838
889.7216.689
899.5366.507
909.3276.299
919.0856.100
928.8945.857
938.6935.588
948.3535.245
958.1134.987
967.7954.674
977.4054.181
986.8963.713
996.2373.096


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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