Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Probability distribution for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.9082.819
Median6.0375.127
Mean7.2327.716
75% Quartile9.1639.361
Interquartile Range5.2556.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.12545.229
221.00532.640
318.85528.713
417.31925.835
516.35423.886
615.47621.410
714.61319.816
814.09818.427
913.64517.129
1013.22516.208
1112.71115.477
1212.43214.702
1312.06014.136
1411.64813.587
1511.34813.003
1611.05512.553
1710.86112.044
1810.63711.541
1910.35911.112
2010.12210.782
219.92910.470
229.75810.131
239.6019.898
249.3959.566
259.1639.361
269.0059.188
278.8658.928
288.6928.725
298.5348.493
308.3628.243
318.2228.018
328.0837.794
337.9327.620
347.7717.450
357.6447.222
367.5457.042
377.4576.866
387.3256.704
397.2006.572
407.0926.402
416.9716.240
426.8336.121
436.7216.022
446.6015.887
456.4985.767
466.4285.635
476.3465.516
486.2235.364
496.1225.249
506.0375.127
515.9305.018
525.8624.909
535.7644.784
545.6804.665
555.5894.547
565.4844.405
575.4114.322
585.3294.239
595.2464.148
605.1714.031
615.0983.915
625.0133.832
634.9283.754
644.8453.660
654.7803.588
664.7063.514
674.6163.446
684.5113.358
694.4273.268
704.3423.204
714.2533.117
724.1593.048
734.0742.968
743.9892.897
753.9072.819
763.8112.749
773.7282.674
783.6482.605
793.5872.540
803.5062.455
813.4242.376
823.3352.301
833.2212.216
843.1472.146
853.0642.086
862.9922.005
872.9111.922
882.8181.855
892.7031.776
902.6141.689
912.4971.608
922.3881.512
932.2971.411
942.1761.289
952.0631.201
961.8841.101
971.7330.954
981.5070.828
991.2670.678


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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