Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1961) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jul4.31010.9626.5350.9285.34910.962
Jul-Aug7.38816.28910.7901.5458.80116.289
Jul-Sep9.84719.76913.7071.84111.72619.769

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.09414.689
2014.27512.483
3013.09711.153
4012.0299.983
5011.1569.017
6010.3138.032
709.4277.148
808.4236.186
907.1144.944

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.58321.402
220.19519.070
319.16318.207
418.38117.517
517.79317.017
617.36316.336
716.90815.866
816.53815.433
916.30515.006
1016.09414.689
1115.86814.427
1215.62414.139
1315.39513.922
1415.24013.705
1515.06113.467
1614.90113.279
1714.69613.059
1814.53012.835
1914.41012.638
2014.27512.483
2114.16012.333
2213.99512.166
2313.87412.049
2413.77011.878
2513.65311.771
2613.52011.679
2713.41311.538
2813.28811.426
2913.19311.296
3013.09711.153
3112.97311.021
3212.84410.887
3312.73510.780
3412.62610.676
3512.51310.531
3612.42710.415
3712.32110.299
3812.22310.191
3912.14210.101
4012.0299.983
4111.9349.868
4211.8499.783
4311.7549.711
4411.6549.612
4511.5399.522
4611.4629.421
4711.3869.329
4811.2979.209
4911.2319.117
5011.1569.017
5111.0708.926
5210.9948.835
5310.9028.727
5410.8088.623
5510.7118.517
5610.6188.388
5710.5378.311
5810.4678.233
5910.3928.146
6010.3138.032
6110.2207.917
6210.1407.832
6310.0357.753
649.9597.654
659.8847.577
669.7997.497
679.7167.423
689.6257.324
699.5277.222
709.4277.148
719.3367.046
729.2456.963
739.1526.865
749.0436.776
758.9486.677
768.8486.587
778.7266.488
788.6256.396
798.5286.306
808.4236.186
818.3146.072
828.1935.962
838.0785.835
847.9745.726
857.8465.630
867.7155.498
877.5735.359
887.4445.245
897.2605.105
907.1144.944
916.9384.789
926.7374.600
936.5534.389
946.3594.119
956.1243.914
965.8113.664
975.4613.268
985.0472.886
994.4932.378


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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