Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1961) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Aug3.0785.3284.2550.6173.4534.392
Aug-Sep5.5378.8087.1720.9136.37712.877
Aug-Oct7.51811.5568.9551.0299.36523.187

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.63912.043
2012.6949.840
3011.5328.575
4010.5327.505
509.6566.651
608.8375.809
708.0265.079
807.1704.313
906.0463.367

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.15619.516
218.43016.795
317.52615.820
416.88415.055
516.36514.508
615.89013.772
715.54613.272
815.25512.816
914.92912.371
1014.63912.043
1114.33611.775
1214.10211.482
1313.94411.263
1413.79111.045
1513.56410.807
1613.35610.620
1713.18210.402
1813.00310.182
1912.8629.990
2012.6949.840
2112.5659.695
2212.4689.534
2312.3299.422
2412.2069.259
2512.0599.157
2611.9429.070
2711.8518.937
2811.7308.831
2911.6298.709
3011.5328.575
3111.4188.453
3211.3198.328
3311.2348.230
3411.1098.134
3511.0258.001
3610.9277.896
3710.8297.790
3810.7097.692
3910.6167.611
4010.5327.505
4110.4617.402
4210.3567.326
4310.2557.262
4410.1557.173
4510.0687.094
469.9817.005
479.9046.924
489.8306.818
499.7396.738
509.6566.651
519.5706.572
529.4806.493
539.3866.400
549.3106.311
559.2406.220
569.1556.110
579.0726.044
588.9875.978
598.9085.905
608.8375.809
618.7795.712
628.7075.642
638.6185.575
648.5305.494
658.4545.430
668.3675.364
678.2835.303
688.1965.222
698.1075.139
708.0265.079
717.9554.996
727.8564.929
737.7704.850
747.6914.779
757.6074.700
767.5194.628
777.4404.550
787.3534.477
797.2654.406
807.1704.313
817.0634.224
826.9614.138
836.8744.040
846.7613.956
856.6513.883
866.5433.783
876.4353.678
886.2893.592
896.1913.487
906.0463.367
915.8933.253
925.7313.115
935.5902.963
945.4222.769
955.2072.624
964.9882.449
974.7272.176
984.3921.919
993.9901.585


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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