Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Dec4.6161.2251.9711.1508.83518.685
Dec-Jan21.47348.0735.3782.04529.839102.411
Dec-Feb55.71755.56560.1652.52476.374234.791

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10151.680138.663
20116.40289.137
3091.66662.499
4071.59643.134
5054.79930.556
6040.53820.795
7028.82914.326
8018.5039.266
909.5275.013

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1251.818280.196
2228.322234.383
3206.583216.477
4193.993201.796
5183.912190.953
6175.595175.928
7167.854165.412
8162.125155.627
9156.144145.917
10151.680138.663
11147.465132.676
12142.617126.105
13138.943121.152
14135.081116.219
15132.024110.838
16128.650106.602
17125.765101.701
18122.75496.766
19119.61392.477
20116.40289.137
21113.33785.946
22110.68082.439
23108.37680.018
24105.44976.535
25103.23674.383
26101.26472.549
2798.95869.792
2896.42167.636
2993.78365.167
3091.66662.499
3189.54260.104
3287.67257.718
3385.58955.868
3483.67854.074
3581.69151.662
3679.18149.776
3776.84047.932
3874.83546.246
3972.92244.886
4071.59643.134
4169.68041.477
4267.93640.273
4366.10839.275
4464.64237.929
4562.61236.741
4661.19935.438
4759.85734.280
4857.77432.803
4956.47131.711
5054.79930.556
5153.37129.529
5251.76528.523
5350.19927.374
5448.50426.301
5546.78825.239
5645.46923.987
5744.42323.265
5843.52522.550
5942.01021.780
6040.53820.795
6139.36019.839
6237.89319.159
6336.57618.537
6435.45817.789
6534.59017.221
6633.58816.650
6732.58916.128
6831.27415.462
6929.97714.795
7028.82914.326
7127.74313.698
7226.73213.207
7325.76612.643
7424.51112.152
7523.60711.619
7622.72211.155
7721.62910.661
7820.51510.215
7919.5369.798
8018.5039.266
8117.4358.780
8216.6228.330
8315.6287.835
8414.6557.432
8513.9107.091
8613.2166.644
8712.2456.199
8811.3195.851
8910.3785.447
909.5275.013
918.6184.623
927.6624.181
936.8503.732
946.1653.215
955.3332.864
964.3652.481
973.5011.961
982.5761.551
991.1821.119


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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