Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1961) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Feb34.2447.49354.7871.00746.535124.898
Feb-Mar63.81625.66175.9183.45082.136261.005
Feb-Apr77.98145.051130.7295.226101.029289.483

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10129.103173.157
20100.377126.238
3081.34098.489
4066.15775.776
5055.08159.036
6045.11744.359
7035.78933.437
8026.59823.907
9016.93214.818

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.577300.830
2195.971259.662
3177.073243.568
4167.214230.363
5158.892220.601
6150.886207.047
7143.362197.534
8137.892188.654
9133.534179.802
10129.103173.157
11125.063167.645
12121.888161.562
13119.007156.949
14115.382152.327
15112.942147.249
16110.446143.220
17107.310138.520
18104.781133.740
19102.564129.540
20100.377126.238
2198.820123.054
2296.827119.519
2394.559117.053
2492.401113.470
2590.158111.232
2688.508109.310
2786.622106.392
2884.430104.085
2983.136101.413
3081.34098.489
3179.78095.828
3278.18793.141
3376.80091.032
3475.46088.964
3573.93486.144
3672.57083.907
3770.65581.690
3869.20179.637
3967.59777.962
4066.15775.776
4164.99473.681
4263.97272.140
4362.83670.849
4461.37769.090
4560.29067.519
4659.28765.776
4757.93364.208
4856.85062.181
4955.96160.663
5055.08159.036
5154.09557.574
5253.00156.124
5351.95554.445
5450.97752.858
5549.99151.266
5649.11249.362
5748.10648.250
5846.74147.137
5945.98945.927
6045.11744.359
6144.22642.816
6243.39941.704
6342.37640.676
6441.47039.429
6540.57138.469
6639.59737.498
6738.84136.601
6837.85235.444
6936.75134.271
7035.78933.437
7134.86132.309
7233.98131.418
7332.75830.384
7431.96029.472
7531.17328.473
7630.26627.592
7729.21426.645
7828.46825.781
7927.50224.963
8026.59823.907
8125.68722.929
8224.63822.013
8323.82420.989
8423.00620.144
8522.04819.421
8620.98518.462
8719.88817.491
8818.93716.720
8918.07415.811
9016.93214.818
9115.92213.909
9214.59112.857
9313.11411.762
9411.71510.464
9510.2499.557
968.6418.538
976.4847.099
983.9525.905
990.9964.567


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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