Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1961) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Apr14.16519.39054.8111.77618.89451.616
Apr-May22.91629.55266.7244.02327.76469.735
Apr-Jun28.66336.87877.9425.19133.84381.169

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.61053.981
2038.33441.271
3033.00633.936
4028.49627.896
5024.96023.303
6021.61019.054
7018.62215.653
8015.22012.410
9011.2118.916

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
171.23391.069
264.23378.796
359.35074.063
456.01370.214
553.75167.391
651.72363.505
750.24460.803
848.80358.300
947.71155.825
1046.61053.981
1145.59252.460
1244.59650.790
1343.51249.530
1442.67448.274
1541.95746.899
1641.29945.812
1740.43444.550
1839.73543.270
1939.11642.150
2038.33441.271
2137.68940.426
2237.08239.489
2336.59138.836
2436.09037.889
2535.54637.298
2635.07636.791
2734.50336.021
2833.96735.412
2933.46934.708
3033.00633.936
3132.60733.233
3232.05932.523
3331.52631.965
3431.04431.417
3530.59130.668
3630.27730.073
3729.80729.482
3829.48328.933
3928.90628.484
4028.49627.896
4128.13427.331
4227.75126.913
4327.45826.563
4427.05826.084
4526.70425.654
4626.37725.176
4725.97024.744
4825.62524.182
4925.31323.759
5024.96023.303
5124.67322.891
5224.36422.481
5324.02522.003
5423.59521.548
5523.22321.089
5622.92120.535
5722.59220.209
5822.24519.881
5921.93919.522
6021.61019.054
6121.32018.589
6221.08318.250
6320.82817.936
6420.58217.551
6520.21817.253
6619.87916.949
6719.58216.666
6819.28816.299
6918.97415.923
7018.62215.653
7118.32015.285
7217.95414.992
7317.63514.648
7417.29014.342
7516.99714.004
7616.67513.703
7716.34013.376
7815.97113.075
7915.64612.787
8015.22012.410
8114.83412.057
8214.53011.722
8314.17311.342
8413.80511.025
8513.40810.750
8612.99510.380
8712.5499.999
8812.0679.693
8911.6239.325
9011.2118.916
9110.6238.533
9210.2838.081
939.8387.598
949.2517.007
958.5506.581
967.9446.086
977.1155.355
986.2514.712
995.0343.942


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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