Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1961) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun5.7477.32511.2171.1686.07823.004
Jun-Jul10.10113.86017.3952.09711.90128.375
Jun-Aug13.20218.11522.3472.71415.64931.376

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.53520.155
2020.01316.818
3018.27814.858
4016.85313.169
5015.62111.799
6014.42210.426
7013.3999.217
8012.0157.927
9010.2496.299

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.17430.905
228.59127.075
326.80925.683
425.65524.579
525.07723.786
624.38622.712
723.71121.977
823.37621.303
922.97220.643
1022.53520.155
1122.20619.753
1221.84119.314
1321.58518.983
1421.38318.654
1521.18718.294
1620.96018.010
1720.69217.679
1820.45117.343
1920.24417.049
2020.01316.818
2119.87016.595
2219.68716.347
2319.49416.174
2419.32215.922
2519.16215.764
2618.98015.629
2718.81615.422
2818.62215.258
2918.44515.067
3018.27814.858
3118.10814.666
3217.92014.471
3317.77914.317
3417.66714.165
3517.53213.956
3617.38513.789
3717.26113.622
3817.09913.466
3916.97313.338
4016.85313.169
4116.74713.005
4216.64712.883
4316.54412.781
4416.42712.639
4516.31112.512
4616.17812.369
4716.03112.239
4815.86412.069
4915.74011.939
5015.62111.799
5115.50411.671
5215.37711.543
5315.28211.392
5415.18211.247
5515.07411.100
5614.96110.919
5714.84510.813
5814.73410.704
5914.58110.584
6014.42210.426
6114.32310.268
6214.20610.151
6314.10910.042
6414.0029.907
6513.9209.801
6613.7979.692
6713.7159.590
6813.6019.456
6913.4839.318
7013.3999.217
7113.2629.079
7213.1478.967
7313.0308.834
7412.9048.715
7512.7498.582
7612.5798.461
7712.4528.329
7812.3168.205
7912.1878.085
8012.0157.927
8111.8887.775
8211.7527.629
8311.5497.461
8411.4147.318
8511.2397.192
8611.0917.019
8710.8846.838
8810.7016.689
8910.4966.507
9010.2496.299
9110.0036.100
929.8325.857
939.5795.588
949.2315.245
958.9724.987
968.6154.674
978.1504.181
987.6903.713
996.9453.096


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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