Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan15.60127.51742.7431.18012.49483.726
Jan-Feb47.34063.527159.9353.82763.433216.106
Jan-Mar74.990107.299171.7726.32492.802282.460

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10203.626183.031
20166.940128.392
30139.94597.442
40118.50573.173
5099.57255.975
6080.99041.383
7063.53230.807
8045.25521.765
9026.48513.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1304.617337.291
2275.832287.204
3259.991267.671
4246.620251.678
5238.630239.879
6228.982223.542
7222.193212.115
8215.235201.483
9208.748190.925
10203.626183.031
11199.146176.505
12194.342169.331
13190.128163.910
14185.618158.499
15182.854152.577
16179.388147.899
17176.217142.464
18172.679136.964
19169.850132.156
20166.940128.392
21164.178124.778
22160.432120.783
23157.914118.008
24154.929113.993
25152.029111.496
26149.262109.357
27146.815106.124
28144.307103.578
29142.041100.642
30139.94597.442
31137.34794.546
32134.79191.635
33132.68389.360
34130.87487.138
35128.74984.122
36126.76081.741
37124.82379.391
38122.58577.224
39120.41175.463
40118.50573.173
41116.29270.987
42114.67369.386
43112.89668.049
44110.73166.232
45109.31664.615
46106.95862.827
47105.20661.225
48103.05059.161
49101.27057.620
5099.57255.975
5197.90654.501
5296.14453.044
5394.23751.363
5492.01649.779
5590.37948.195
5688.69146.307
5786.93745.209
5884.69444.111
5982.60342.921
6080.99041.383
6179.15639.875
6277.69638.791
6375.76037.791
6473.93336.581
6572.13735.651
6670.04234.713
6768.69233.847
6866.93332.733
6965.46431.607
7063.53230.807
7161.48229.729
7259.54128.877
7358.11427.892
7456.19327.025
7554.32926.077
7652.33525.242
7750.30824.346
7848.31923.530
7946.56022.759
8045.25521.765
8143.31220.847
8241.37219.989
8339.57019.030
8437.85918.242
8536.35017.568
8634.47416.676
8732.62915.774
8830.44015.060
8928.80614.218
9026.48513.301
9124.63712.464
9222.62511.497
9320.06010.493
9417.9169.306
9515.3638.481
9613.1467.555
9710.8786.253
988.2045.177
994.9913.979


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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