Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan16.16742.7439.0161.18015.05783.726
Jan-Feb49.685159.93522.8283.82769.455216.106
Jan-Mar76.992171.77239.7786.32494.124282.460

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10119.504183.031
2086.779128.392
3066.76997.442
4050.04073.173
5038.12455.975
6028.52541.383
7020.00230.807
8012.72921.765
906.05113.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1208.442337.291
2184.841287.204
3170.768267.671
4160.190251.678
5150.084239.879
6141.170223.542
7134.348212.115
8129.891201.483
9124.066190.925
10119.504183.031
11116.086176.505
12112.742169.331
13108.106163.910
14104.073158.499
15101.024152.577
1697.648147.899
1794.741142.464
1891.303136.964
1989.048132.156
2086.779128.392
2184.245124.778
2282.260120.783
2379.902118.008
2477.814113.993
2576.089111.496
2673.489109.357
2772.049106.124
2870.204103.578
2968.584100.642
3066.76997.442
3165.46794.546
3263.36691.635
3361.27489.360
3459.43187.138
3557.72484.122
3655.99481.741
3754.84679.391
3853.13477.224
3951.61475.463
4050.04073.173
4148.68470.987
4247.19369.386
4345.83568.049
4444.57266.232
4543.76764.615
4642.64862.827
4741.18361.225
4840.06659.161
4939.16157.620
5038.12455.975
5137.09554.501
5235.99153.044
5334.67851.363
5433.62749.779
5532.43848.195
5631.57846.307
5730.98045.209
5830.07744.111
5929.47042.921
6028.52541.383
6127.74339.875
6226.80938.791
6325.95737.791
6424.95136.581
6524.06035.651
6623.13734.713
6722.33333.847
6821.61932.733
6920.74631.607
7020.00230.807
7119.30429.729
7218.58728.877
7317.73627.892
7417.18727.025
7516.30126.077
7615.43725.242
7714.70224.346
7813.98223.530
7913.34522.759
8012.72921.765
8111.93120.847
8211.39719.989
8310.77719.030
8410.11418.242
859.45717.568
868.76816.676
878.01715.774
887.54015.060
896.84914.218
906.05113.301
915.37812.464
924.73911.497
934.26410.493
943.6099.306
952.8068.481
961.9537.555
971.2506.253
980.4865.177
990.0003.979


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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