Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls



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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan16.0219.01637.7411.18015.47783.726
Jan-Feb49.13722.828162.6393.82759.727216.106
Jan-Mar76.22439.778298.7466.32480.311282.460

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10274.534183.031
20235.921128.392
30209.41297.442
40186.43473.173
50164.59055.975
60143.50741.383
70120.71530.807
8095.46921.765
9063.90113.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1377.212337.291
2343.481287.204
3329.779267.671
4317.479251.678
5308.038239.879
6299.682223.542
7293.874212.115
8286.642201.483
9280.577190.925
10274.534183.031
11269.583176.505
12265.699169.331
13260.777163.910
14257.029158.499
15254.088152.577
16250.308147.899
17246.358142.464
18242.510136.964
19239.255132.156
20235.921128.392
21233.210124.778
22230.667120.783
23227.639118.008
24224.430113.993
25221.485111.496
26219.433109.357
27216.606106.124
28213.937103.578
29211.468100.642
30209.41297.442
31207.24694.546
32204.72491.635
33202.64489.360
34200.47287.138
35197.99284.122
36195.91581.741
37193.54879.391
38191.09277.224
39188.84775.463
40186.43473.173
41184.54070.987
42182.15969.386
43179.54568.049
44177.65466.232
45175.53564.615
46173.12862.827
47170.65761.225
48168.57059.161
49166.30757.620
50164.59055.975
51162.55454.501
52160.38153.044
53158.65251.363
54156.71349.779
55154.65048.195
56152.07346.307
57149.52945.209
58147.65044.111
59145.48642.921
60143.50741.383
61141.34939.875
62139.20938.791
63137.31937.791
64134.69936.581
65132.55035.651
66130.48434.713
67128.59433.847
68125.79732.733
69123.26831.607
70120.71530.807
71118.66529.729
72116.25828.877
73113.87127.892
74111.77427.025
75109.31426.077
76106.71725.242
77103.98924.346
78101.78923.530
7997.99222.759
8095.46921.765
8192.77920.847
8290.01819.989
8386.79119.030
8483.81418.242
8580.17017.568
8676.69916.676
8773.84015.774
8870.66115.060
8967.88614.218
9063.90113.301
9159.82112.464
9255.37011.497
9351.15410.493
9446.2289.306
9540.9078.481
9635.7267.555
9731.2106.253
9823.1255.177
9916.9713.979


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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