Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls


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Historical and exceedance probability for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan16.2686.92546.8481.18016.37437.741
Jan-Feb51.03632.49454.3413.82762.596162.639
Jan-Mar80.84283.78972.5096.32496.971298.746

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10165.391183.031
20129.373128.392
30105.56997.442
4085.96073.173
5068.94755.975
6054.52141.383
7040.65630.807
8027.90121.765
9015.44513.301

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1259.825337.291
2232.206287.204
3218.820267.671
4207.480251.678
5196.093239.879
6187.737223.542
7181.115212.115
8175.971201.483
9170.513190.925
10165.391183.031
11160.879176.505
12156.792169.331
13153.083163.910
14149.521158.499
15145.744152.577
16142.733147.899
17139.525142.464
18135.668136.964
19132.556132.156
20129.373128.392
21127.321124.778
22124.929120.783
23122.644118.008
24120.319113.993
25118.090111.496
26115.521109.357
27112.789106.124
28109.978103.578
29107.986100.642
30105.56997.442
31103.49294.546
32101.43091.635
3399.56389.360
3497.66587.138
3595.83384.122
3694.24581.741
3791.98579.391
3889.73577.224
3987.56175.463
4085.96073.173
4184.01570.987
4282.29469.386
4380.77568.049
4478.96566.232
4577.05864.615
4675.46862.827
4774.09661.225
4872.20359.161
4970.55557.620
5068.94755.975
5167.76754.501
5266.43153.044
5365.05651.363
5463.48149.779
5562.03848.195
5660.60646.307
5758.95245.209
5857.61044.111
5955.71242.921
6054.52141.383
6153.02939.875
6251.41438.791
6350.23737.791
6448.62436.581
6547.42235.651
6646.26134.713
6744.94333.847
6843.61132.733
6942.14131.607
7040.65630.807
7139.14629.729
7237.86528.877
7336.46227.892
7435.44227.025
7534.15326.077
7633.15025.242
7731.96424.346
7830.54023.530
7929.28122.759
8027.90121.765
8126.41620.847
8224.99019.989
8323.93619.030
8422.80218.242
8521.62817.568
8620.58916.676
8719.44415.774
8818.41115.060
8916.91414.218
9015.44513.301
9114.12912.464
9212.98511.497
9311.43110.493
9410.0509.306
958.4388.481
967.2707.555
975.7066.253
983.9005.177
991.9143.979


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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